The Value of Copyrighted Content – Or Why the Content Creation Industries Have a Budgetary Problem


I saw a quote recently from IFPI (DMR 2010) that claimed the global content industry was worth around 1.4 trillion dollars per annum.

At the time, I remember scoffing and haw hawing.

Yet, dear reader, I am about to show you how John Kennedy vastly underestimated the value of the Content Industry.

Copyright owners have consistently pushed for longer copyright terms.

Yet in itself, we have discovered that copyright is not a catalyst to spur innovation. It is merely the justification for litigation.

Interestingly, Copyright is designed to return to the owner (not the creator) a fee, which as well as allowing one to pay the bills, is also a form of approval rating. The more fees collected, the higher the audience approval.

Yet today, the only persons collecting fees from 57% of all audio-visual content on the internet are the carriers who charge for each byte that transits their network.

The charges range on a global basis from a few cents per gigabyte in the information rich countries like the USA and Japan, where bandwidth is plentiful and essentially uncapped; through to dollars per gigabyte in information poor countries like Australia.

On the Internet, in those countries where data is not restricted by duopoly Telco agreements and all ISP’s and carriers peer their local
content, consumer choice is driven by crowd sourcing.

Curiously, no-one has analysed the entertainment value of these P2P sourced files.

On TVU, there are the links to 356,775 television show episodes being added to at the rate of 142 new shows per day.

The ratings vary from 4.5 (very good) down to .5 or 1 (not so good).

The number of clicks next to each episode shows the popularity. (I call this TVU Ratings…:-))

A number of company’s like Vquence analyse YouTube memes and patterns.

Neilsens tell us what is popular today on free to air and cable, yet Neilsens do not measure the content that the majority of the world is watching.

Personally, I find myself chuckling with mirth equally at Public Domain episodes of “I love Lucy” and the “Big Bang Theory”, however, this may be because of my advancing years. (I actually know who Lyndon Johnston was.)

As entertainment fodder, each program in it’s own way has fed my hedonistic appetite for content that entertains.

Therefore the value of the content has a value to me as an individual. The value is the dollar amount I am prepared to commit to to be

We calculated the value of personal leisure-time last year. For a moment we will disregard that and estimate the value of life earnings
against total life expectancy.











$ 1,000,000.00


$ 36.53

$ 1.52

$ 0.03

If my life earnings are a million dollars, then I should spend no more than three cents per minute if I expect not to go into debt.

If we take into account unemployment numbers, discretionary entertainment is down to around 11%. However, for the purposes of this blog article,
let us consider that it could be as high as 33%.

If we accept that Food, Housing, Medical, Transport and Clothing represents 66% of every dollar earned, then we have a discretionary budget of
one cent per minute for our entertainment content.

That means that a song on iTunes is worth 5 cents.

A movie (90 minute) 90 cents.

A half hour TV show (22 minutes without the advertising) is worth 22 cents.)

(These fees of course need to include the download cost….)

It can be argued that items of intense interest qualify for a premium viewing fee.

However, any increase in the 1 cent per minute means that I need to forgo Food, Clothing, Housing Transport or medical.

Let us assume that I pay one dollar for a song form iTunes. I now have to listen to that song 20 times before I have broken even on my
purchase. For a popular music item, 20 replays is easy to imagine.

Let us now consider an episode of “I Love Lucy”. Assuming I paid $1.99 (Amazon episode price) I would need to watch that episode of “I
love Lucy” nine times during my lifetime to stay on budget.
Highly unlikely.

However I could “share it” with eight other people and stay financially viable.

I could purchase the content on my credit card and go into debt.

When entertainment costs mean that people are unable to eat, pay their electricity [For New South Wales people that has a whole new meaning on your electricity bill starting today….], buy clothing, keep the roof over one’s head or afford to get medical care, then one needs to reanalyze ones spending habits.

Purchasing a $75.00 Blueray DVD is just not a realistic expenditure possibility for 93% of the worlds population. Mainly because of the 125 hours (@$0.60 per) of no content viewed required to pay for the credit card debt.

Consumers have started to realise that plastic without a job is not a viable option.

The pricing of discretionary entertainment options have not yet reached realistic pricing levels.  I foresee a future where the Telephone Companies distribute all content for free and collect the transit fees.

The current choices for consumers are to:

  1. Go into credit card debt to be entertained;

  2. Not be entertained;

  3. Download from the Internet for just the bandwidth costs;

  4. Borrow DVD’s from better heeled peers and family;

  5. Find a cheaper entertainment alternative;

Obviously, regardless of the legislative activities being forced on our parliamentarians by industry paid lobbyists, most will elect option 3.

Not because they are pirates and not because they don’t want to pay for the content.

But because the content is not priced within their budgetary allowances.

So what is the budgetary allowance of the average person on planet earth ?

The average salary (globally) is around $(USD) 9000.00 per annum.











$ 675,000.00

$ 9,000.00

$ 24.66

$ 1.03

$ 0.02

Down 33%. I now have only .675 of a cent to spend on non essentials. (that’s nearly one seventh of a cent, not 67 cents.)

If we accept that audio visual entertainment takes up an average of four hours and eleven minutes of our daily lives, then .675 equals 166.05
per day, ($1.66), or; $1,095,930,000,000 per day.

What is the real total value of sustainable Global spend on discretionary expenditure?


A valid reason to put the prices of content DOWN.

Rob Wells of UMG (Vivendi) summed it up very nicely in the DMR2010 Report;

We’re much closer to the utopia, where we’re extracting 1 out of a million consumers as opposed to 10 out of a thousand.”

Well Rob, very soon, all content will be on the phones. How about a buck a day from everyone on planet earth for all content ?

Great idea… before those YouTube people take-over plant earth…. 25 hours a minute of newly created content. Wow!

Fig 1. – YouTube Video Uploads

Koltai Left and Right Brain conversation:

Who gets the money from that ?

Oh, Google and the Telephone companies.

Do the Telephone companies own any content ?

Apart from Vivendi ?

Yes, apart from Vivendi.

And Apart from Time Warner ?

Yes, Apart from them also.

Does iTunes owning part of Disney count ?

Are they a Telephone company ?


Then they don’t count.

So is this something that Jobs overlooked ?

It would appear so.

So with all this content, who gets the most number of viewers ?

According to Comscore….

* by Videos Viewed

Total U.S. – Home/Work/University Locations                                                 Apr-10



Share of
Videos (%)

Total Internet : Total



Google Sites





Microsoft Sites



Viacom Digital



Yahoo! Sites






Fox Interactive Media



CBS Interactive



Turner Network






And what do they watch ?

According to the recent Pew Internet Report, [N=750] the average audio-visual content consumed is…

Online Video Watchers viewing:










Comedy or Humourous Videos




News Videos




Educational (How-to ) videos




Movies or TV Shows




Music Videos




Political Videos




Animation or Cartoons




Sports Videos




Commercials or advertisements








We posted this chart last month. We include it here for ease of reference.

Youtube Videos


Per Day


Per Hour


Per Minute


Per Year

8 Minutes

Average Length





Movie Attendances (over 9 attendances per person on the whole planet vs 1.2 actual cinema attendances)

We explained that over twenty-five hours of video content was being uploaded to Youtube, twenty four hours per day.

If we compare that to all Television episodes; (we blogged this last month, chart according to IMDB here),

if we allow that each Television Episode is between 22 minutes and 44 minutes average length, we could say arbitrarily that all TV episodes are 32 minutes long. On that basis, we have 27,375,488 minutes of entertainment representing 456,258.13 hours which if created by YouTube fans would be created and uploaded in 18,250.32 minutes which is only 304.17 hours or 12.67 days.

In other words, what took the various content creators globally, seventy years to create, is replicated every 12.7 days on YouTube and from the
looks of the YouTube growth curve, it is just at the beginning of its hockey stick.

If you ask me, I would say that the content horse for traditional forms of content, has bolted.

Content Creators will need to now compete with funny shorts created by the guy or girl next door.

3D as an industry innovation, is an excellent commencement. I look forward to seeing what the industry will think up next to compete with:

YouTube, Computer Games and exacerbated by a lower willingness to commit to high levels of personal debt.


The future of the worlds economy is in the hands mainly of persons of whom 93% prefer short humorous videos.

YouTube is at the Genesis of a new Industry – dominated by amateur videos. Which is shaping up very similar to the earlierst days of the motion picture industry.

Koltai Prediction:

  • All content will be streamed for free by 2020 chosen by crowd sourcing friends views.
  • Revenues will be from advertising opt-in pop-overs.

Question to Ponder…

Who will run the Amateur Video Industry ?

Either a very large cheque book, or a brilliant new Technology.


Value of the Entertainment Business – IFPI

The State of Online Video | Pew Internet & American Life Project

The Couch Potatoes Guide to the Total Number of Movies in the World.



A few hundred blog articles ago, I estimated the number of movies that the average human might attempt to watch in their lifetime.

Assuming the first movie is watched at age 5 and we accept an additional 70 years of movie watching at two movies per day, with no repeats… [so these stats are for non-Foxtel viewers] then the average person on planet earth can watch:



Movies per day


Days in a year


Total Movies in a Lifetime


Fig. 1 Total Movies viewed per lifetime.

We started with IMDB being the largest film and other content database in existence, globally. Unfortunately, as expected, we  obtained
mixed results.

First we walked the IMDB database for the content types.

Fig. 2 All Content – All languages – all years.

Feaure Films



TV Movie



TV Series



TV Episode



TV Special



Mini Series






Video Game



Short Film








Source: IMDB Database

Then we analysed a subset of the data to determine accuracy.

The quality of data in the IMDB database as a historical resource is excellent.

Unfortunately, from a statistical viewpoint, there are data entry anomalies that detract from its accuracy due to the untrained publicus input.

e.g.: According to IMDB  there are 1284 Feature films from amongst 9,872 pieces of content filmed inclusive of 1906. [Search used]

IMDB lists a “Romance” film “Miss Jerry” as the first feature film ever created in 1894. However, in the absence of the length of the movie, we will consider it to be a movie short, i.e. most probably 20-50 seconds in duration and not really a candidate for inclusion in the feature film classification.

Miss Jerry (1894) The adventures of a female reporter in the 1890s. Romance 6.9/10
(Although, how five people managed to view an 1890 film, who also happen to be IMDB visitors, so that it could be rated, is beyond me…..)

Most content of a similar nature has been inserted into the “Video” classification of IMDB.

Of these 1284 “feature films, only one movie qualifies as a feature film in that it consisted of multiple, reels of film.

The first multi-reel film was the “Kelly Gang” produced in Australia in 1906 and shown to audiences in London in 1907. -

Therefore we know that from 1891 to 1906, there are 1283 incorrect classifications (out of 1284). This gives us an unacceptable error
percentage which unfortunately disqualifies the database from providing a determinative result.

Therefore we need to look at alternative methods for calculating  only multi-reel feature films from 1907 till today…..

We already have the numbers for total films produced by the worldwide industry

Fig 3. Screen Digest Totals (Plus Nigeria for 2006)

Number of feature films produced Globally











Sources: Screen Digest, June 2005, June 2006, July 2007, July 2008 and July 2009. Nollywood – 2006 – UNESCO

N.B. 2006 includes 800+ movies from Nollywood, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008 do not include any Nollywood movie numbers.

There is no complete list of all movies, therefore we “fudged” a result. (Counting only English Language Movies.)

We extrapolated from a known base the first year and the number of films last year and got to approximately 116,142 which is based on a smooth growth curve of 4.95% per annum increase in the number of movies produced.

Fig 4. Our initial smoothed extrapolated calculation





Film Production




The average YoY growth – for all visual medium content – in the IMDB database equals 6% – exactly – (from 1891 till the present).

However we omitted :









As being too outside the norm… (and we adjusted for “Dubbed” versions – explanation below.)

Of course, some years 1916-1946 numbers were down and others, 1946-1949, 1958-59 were up.

If we look at Documentaries and shorts…..

Which ones do we count? … In about circa 1895, early film attendees thought the following list (totalling 7.5 minutes with a reel change
in-between each “short” and with no sound) was great….

· La Sortie des Ouviers de L’Usine Lumière à Lyon (1895) (Workers Leaving the Lumiere Factory) (46 seconds)
· La Voltige (1895) (Horse Trick Riders) (46 seconds)
· La Pêche aux Poissons Rouges (1895) (Fishing for Goldfish) (42 seconds)
· Le Débarquement du Congrès de Photographie à Lyon (1895) (The Disembarkment of the Congress of Photographers in Lyon) (48 seconds)
· Les Forgerons (1895) (Blacksmiths) (49 seconds)
· Le Jardinier (l’Arroseur Arrosé) (The Gardener or The Sprinkler Sprinkled) (1895) (49 seconds)
· Le Repas (de Bébé) (1895) (Baby’s Meal) (41 seconds)
· Le Saut à la Couverture (1895) (Jumping onto the Blanket) (41 seconds)
· La Place des Cordeliers à Lyon (1895) (Cordeliers Square in Lyon) (44 seconds)
· La Mer (Baignade en Mer) (1895) (Bathing in the Sea) (38 seconds)
Fig 5. Table of Early Movie Shorts


So if we count these “shorts”  and all known [non Government or Commercial] documentaries, then the  total would equal over 446,000 or approximately 170,966 hours of video entertainment.

Of course, this doesn’t include foreign language films, or the IMDB “video” category [euphemistically referred to as the “Romance” videos],nor does it include TV series, Mini series et al as in the above table, and if we then break it down by years, we get something that looks like this….

Source: Various Databases inc. Unesco Library, CITWF, IMDB NFSA  (Dataset is incomplete – several countries archive collections not included – e.g. NigeriaSpecifically, an estimated  19,000+ movies.)

Other errors and omissions are attributable to the thousands of lost movies as companies went out of business and private archive collections were lost to natural disasters and war.

We estimate [from a cursory shallow analysis] that there could be as many as an additional 61,000 items of historical content not listed in any of the databases that we accessed to compile these numbers. e.g.: According to [Brown, 1997]; “One of the most exciting recent events in Britain to affect early cinema studies has been the discovery of the film copyright collection at the Public Record Office, Kew. Hidden among the tens of thousands of copyright records for photographs that exist between 1862 and 1911 are a few hundred records for motion picture films.” [Guestimate based on number of “finds” over the last decade – approx. 55 movies found per year.]

The above graph would tend to suggest that technology drives creation and demand.

Source: IMDB only

N.B.: Dataset is incomplete – several countries archive collections not included.

Persons reviewing the above graph and noting the drop off from 2005, need to consider other A/V publishing environments [e.g. [YouTube, Metacafe] before jumping to conclusions about industry reversals.

(Alternative new technology often generates disruptive influences on established technologies.)

These charts are about production and not consumption. They are indicative of economic conditions enabling creation rather than ticket sales.

Additionally, the IMDB database contains 7,000+ video games from around 1990 and this should be taken into account.

Further we note that the IMDB Database considers that dubbed movies are equal to original movies.


Most Popular Chinese-Language Feature Films/Videos Released No Later Than 2010

49 titles.



Remember Me (2010) A romantic drama centered on two new lovers:
Tyler, whose parents have split in the wake of his brother’s suicide, and Ally, who lives each day to the fullest since
witnessing her mother’s murder. Dir: Allen Coulter With: Robert
, Emilie de Ravin DramaRomance

113 mins.



Spider-Man 2 (2004) Peter Parker is beset with troubles in his failing personal life as he battles a brilliant scientist named
Doctor Otto Octavius, who becomes Doctor Octopus (aka Doc Ock), after an accident causes him to bond psychically with mechanical
tentacles that do his bidding. Dir: Sam Raimi With: Tobey
, Kirsten Dunst, Alfred Molina ActionFantasySci-FiThriller

127 mins.



Australia (2008) Set in northern Australia before World War II, an English aristocrat who inherits a sprawling ranch reluctantly pacts with a stock-man in order to protect her new property from a takeover plot. As the pair drive 2,000 head of cattle over unforgiving landscape, they experience the bombing of Darwin, Australia, by Japanese forces firsthand. Dir: Baz Luhrmann With: Nicole Kidman, Hugh Jackman AdventureDramaHistoryRomanceWar
165 mins.



Gangs of New York (2002) In 1863, Amsterdam Vallon returns to the Five Points area of New York City seeking revenge against Bill the Butcher, his father’s killer. Dir: Martin Scorsese With: Leonardo DiCaprio, Cameron Diaz, Daniel Day-Lewis CrimeDramaHistory
167 mins.



Goldfinger (1964) Investigating a gold magnate’s smuggling, James Bond uncovers a plot to contaminate the Fort Knox gold reserve. Dir: Guy Hamilton With: Sean Connery, Gert Fröbe, Honor Blackman ActionAdventureThriller United States-GP 110 mins.

If I search on Chinese Language and Chinese Origin

Most Popular Chinese-Language Feature Films/Videos Released No Later Than 2010 With Country of Origin China

22 titles.



Baiyin diguo (2009) In 1899, a carefree young man must prepare to take over his family’s Chinese banking empire. Dir: Christina Yao BiographyDramaFamilyHistoryRomance

113 mins.


Single Man (2010) The story is originated in Gujiagou Village, 150km from Beijing, the Capital of China. The wife of the… Dir: Jie Hao Comedy

94 mins.

We only get to, all up, 22 titles.

Yet we know that the Chinese people make approximately 250-300 films per annum. (We published the 2005 stats in a previous article.

The statistics on Chinese film production in 2005 was:
Number     Type
3           Blockbusters (over 100 million RMB Production budgets. E.g.: The Promise)
10         10-50 million RMB
240       1.5-3 million RMB (These films are restricted to TV and/or DVD release only because of budget constraints)”.

Yet nobody bothers to upload that data onto the IMDB database.

If we look at Germany as the country of origin, we find in position one, “Inglorious bastards” …

Most Popular German-Language Feature Films/Videos Released No Later Than 2010 With Country of Origin Germany

1-50 of 7,634 titles.



Inglourious Basterds (2009) In Nazi-occupied France during World War II, a group of Jewish-American soldiers known as “The
Basterds” are chosen specifically to spread fear throughout the Third Reich by scalping and brutally killing Nazis. Dir:
Quentin Tarantino With: Brad Pitt,
Diane Kruger, Eli Roth DramaThrillerWar 153

Yet it is listed as number 45 on the American Universal Pictures “About Us” listing.

· (45)  Inglourious Basterds (2009) … Production Company (presents)

We mentioned Nollywood above.

Most Popular Titles With Country of Origin Nigeria

1-50 of 2,972 titles.



Things Fall Apart (1971) Dir: Hans Jürgen Pohland Drama
90 mins.



Legacy (2010) Black Ops operative Malcolm Gray returns home after a botched mission in Eastern Europe. Holed up in a Brooklyn motel room… Dir: Thomas Ikimi Thriller
95 mins.



Atonement (2005 Video) Dir: Fos Nwaokike

We already know that they are making approximately 30 new titles every week available for sale, that adds up to an astonishing 1500 movies per year for a country with around 24 million households.

With DVD’s priced at between one and two dollars each, it’s easy to understand why the industry is doing so well.

Also, with such a reasonable pricing model, the concept of Commercial Piracy and non-commercial file-sharing, cannot afford to exist.

But this article is not about the most innovative and successful business story of the content creation world, it is about the total number of films that exist.

So given that we do not have an accurate representation of the “emerging economies” film manufacturing totals, we can hardly be accurate with the “Total number of movies”.

Therefore our control is as per the following total for 2006.































(Due to space limitations we listed only those countries with a total above 100)

Now totalling 6110 movies for 2006 and starting with 38 as per Fig 4 above.

As an anecdotal “AP”, discounting dubbed movies, using the above control year (2006) , we would place the total number of feature films Globally at approximately 172,000.

Feel free to disagree and nominate a different method of calculating the quantum.

However – we removed Dupes (dubbed into foreign languages – approximately -1.2%)

We added Nigerian and several European and Asian country movies. (+1.034%)

Back to our Couch Potatoes….

No of awake hours in an average lifetime? 404,217

So for all you couch potatoes out there…. If you want to view all the content…. You better get started….

P.S.:  The Bad News…..

Youtube users are now uploading 24.5 hours of video content every minute.

We will review and chart YouTube on another day…. However, as an indicator, the total YouTube videos uploaded already exceed all previous commercial content created from 1889 to the present.

Youtube Videos Watched


Per Day


Per Hour


Per Minute


Per Year

8 Minutes

Average Length




Movie Attendances

Sorry couch potatoes… You’re too late. Unless of course,  you’re a sci-fi fan, in which case…. If you can find an Atlantean chair and fast-forward all the content at 3000 frames a second… and it doesn’t overload your synapses… then… maybe…


We leave you with a thought – as always…

Does anyone see any similarity between the following Picture and the shorts in Fig. 5 above ?

The First four Youtube Videos with Running Time Shown

Seems like when persons are trying something out for the first time, they make only short versions to ensure they can master the technology.

Might be an indication of where the world is going….


As always – this is a blog – therefore Bib is slightly disorganised.

(We have cut back the Bibliography as just the UNESCO references ran to three pages – we have supplied a cross section of the relevant
references as an indication of the quality of the numbers.)

The History of Film The Pre-1920s Early Cinematic Origins and the Infancy of Film

Dirk T.

History of the Czechoslovakian cinema

Czech Republic – Národní filmový archiv, Knihovna

The National Film Archive in Prague has largest library of film literature in the Czech Republic containing a collection of film
scripts (more than 9,000), a collection of some 65,000 books, film magazines from all over the world, a reference library, etc.

CITWF  - The Complete Index to World Film since 1895

Alan Goble

Working with Copyright–Protected Materials in a Digital Environment

Creative Commons Project

France – Bibliothèque du Film (BIFI)

La BiFi a pour vocation de diffuser et de mettre à la disposition d’un large public ce patrimoine constitué d’éléments documentaires sur le cinéma français et étranger. Catalogue complet de la médiathèque contenant les références d’ouvrages, de films (vidéo), de dossiers de presse, de photos, d’affiches… Pour de nombreux films, acteurs ou réalisateurs, une fiche détaillée est disponible directement en ligne.

The Public-Domain Movie Database

Prelinger Archives

Israel – Film Database

In Hebrew only. Israeli film article database providing information about international and Israeli films.

Turner Classic Movies

With outstanding films from all genres, tailor made documentaries and
exclusive interviews with the biggest stars, TCM is the home of film.

Sundance Channel : Home Page

Find the best in independent film, original series, blogs and original web content focusing on indie culture.

Lost film archive reveals life on northern streets of 100 years ago

Ian Burrell, Thursday, 29 July 2004

Home page at

Filmsandtv contains a large movie database you can search by movie title, actor, genre, and Oscars. Read and search celebrity news and show the top ten boxoffice movies. Show TV series and TV episode descriptions along with TV schedules. Play movie trivia. – Mozi, Filmek, Színészek, TV és minden, ami film!

FilmKatalogus – Mozi, Filmek, Szinészek. Az egyik legnagyobb magyar filmes portál.

Australian National Film and Sound Archive

The images and sounds of film, television, radio and recording are a reflection of our creativity – a window onto our life and
times, our dreams and stories, our place in the world.

The National Film and Sound Archive is Australia’s audiovisual archive, collecting, preserving and sharing this rich heritage.

Film in Australia

The Australian film industry got off to a flying start, producing what was probably the world’s first full length feature film in 1906. The
film was the Tait brothers production
The Story of the Kelly Gang, a success in both Australian and British theatres

Harvard Film Archive

UK - British Pathe

First digital news archive allowing a preview of items from the entire 3500 hour British Pathe Film Archive. Items cover news, sport, social
history and entertainment from 1896 to 1970.

[Brown 1997] The British Film Copyright Collection

Brown Richard – Journal of Film Preservation Volume XXVI N° 54 • [Apr. / avr. 1997]

Hollywood, Bollywood and Nollywood –v- Facebook


An Apology

A friend rang me today to inquire after my health, residence on planet earth and basically, “Why havent you been blogging lately?”

So – to those that come in search of Koltai-isms, I apolgise for my sporadic posting.

Regular readers will remember last October that I blogged about a court case that I was involved in. Well, it’s hotting up, in fact the hearing is next week, the culmination of three years worth of litigation….. and yes, I’ll let you know the result, if I’m allowed too.

Fans should send their “For he’s a jolly good fellows” to the judges chambers.

Detractors, just move along, this is just another boring Koltai post.


Chris and I speak on a regular basis about Life the Universe and everything.

This Blog is reflective of some of those discussions.

Today, he sent me a url to some Facebook statistics and one of them leapt off the page at me.

So I just had to blog it – albeit briefly…..

Four hundred million Facebook Users are uploading three billion photos per month.

OK, here’s the boring stuff.

A photo is representative of a single frame of film. PAL video (and cinema film projectors) operate at 24/25
frames per second (fps).

A ninety minute movie (@ 25 fps) is 135,000 frames.

If we linked all the photos on Facebook together, we would have sufficient content to create 22,222 90 minute movies – Per month.

Lets put that into a global perspective

Rank Country Number of feature films produced1
-2008 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Nigeria n/a n/a 872 n/a n/a
40 Venezuela 3 5 9 8 16
47 New Zealand 4 5 6 12 12
14 Indonesia 31 50 60 77 85
21 Poland 17 29 37 31 40
41= Slovenia 7 10 7 8 15
24 Australia 16 29 32 30 34
43 Colombia 7 14 14 14 14
43= Singapore 7 8 10 11 14
4 China 212 260 330 402 406
20 Egypt 24 23 40 42 45
6 Russian Federation 120 160 200 200 220
35= Ireland 12 12 12 14 22
50 Croatia 5 5 8 9 9
29 Czech Republic 16 20 22 18 27
12 Argentina 54 60 60 80 90
22 Belgium 23 28 30 58 37
35 Chile 14 15 16 10 22
23 Taiwan 24 17 24 30 36
9 Germany 87 103 122 122 125
48 Bulgaria 7 4 7 13 10
1 India 934 1,041 1,016 1,164 1,325
37 Portugal 15 16 19 15 21
10 South Korea 82 87 110 124 113
3 Japan 310 356 417 407 418
25 Netherlands 24 24 29 26 32
17 Switzerland 44 47 50 76 58
7 Spain 133 142 150 172 173
16 Mexico 54 53 65 70 70
27= Malaysia 22 20 28 28 28
38 Finland 15 13 14 17 18
5 France 203 240 203 228 240
18 Thailand 46 39 42 47 54
27 Austria 24 24 32 32 28
41 Israel 13 12 16 18 15
8 Italy 134 98 116 121 154
31 Hungary 21 26 28 41 24
12= Brazil 81 90 142 117 90
32 Greece 22 16 21 20 23
32= Norway 22 19 19 22 23
30 Denmark 26 41 20 24 26
48= Morocco 10 12 15 10 10
43= South Africa 15 11 10 15 14
38= Romania 21 20 18 10 18
2 US 611 699 673 656 520
11 UK 132 131 134 117 111
19 Hong Kong 64 55 51 50 53
15 Canada 133 122 97 111 81
32= Sweden 40 54 51 28 23
26 Philippines 53 58 56 47 30
46 Pakistan 25 18 23 16 13
Totals 4,019 4,441 5,583 5,018 5,085
Source: Screen Digest, June 2005, June 2006, July 2007, July 2008 and July 2009 and Unesco
Notes: Countries where number of films produced were identical have been given a shared ranking.
1. Includes co-productions.
n.a. Data not available.

So the industry makes around 5,100 films per year.

In other words, the content being uploaded onto Facebook exceeds the annual global film output by about 261,666 movies.

So the question now remains, who charges what to look at what pictures.

(And if you don’t think you’re being charged, what is that advertising doing next the picture of the family pooch?)

A conundrum – especially if Facebook now make photos available to everyone regardless of your preferences.

Whatever happened to that archaic form of creative rights protection, I think it was called copyright.

I guess when the consumers out produce the producers, it might be time to re-examine the effect that market forces are having on not only our content industry, but consumer consumption.

If 400 million people spend all their time looking at each others photos on Facebook and, there are fiftytwo times more photos than movie frames, who’s got time to go to the movies?

I guess Hollywood, Bollywood and Nollywood (Nigerian Film industry) still have an advantage – their frames have sound.

I wonder what will happen when voice tags are added to each photo on Facebook.

As the Sun Sets on P2P in the West


Originally published on Perceptric by Tom Koltai at 06:02PM (EST) on March 7, 2009

Sharing is a community thing and has been since the time of Adam. (Think Apple – Eve, not Jobs)

But Ipoques’ latest report states that P2P file sharing is down 6.9% year on year.

They go on to explain that the drop is balanced by http traffic from sites like Rapidshare. Users are moving to this kind of site in droves, sick and tired of being harassed by companies like Media Defender, Bay/TSP and DTECnet. And sick of Governments legislating SafeHarbour Acts that require ISP’s to disconnect the users.

Smart users figure that if their download looks like port 80 http traffic then it is less likely to be interdicted, interfered with, or have the brakes applied to it by ISP’s who want to stay out of trouble with content companies.

At Perceptric, we have a theory, the harder and higher the level of interdiction, the greater the push-back from
the p2p community.

Anecdotally, it is the author’s hypothesis that the real P2P “buzz” is almost over. That interdiction, filtering, Denial of Service attacks are all pretty much about to become a moot point. After all – where is the fun in collecting grains of pretty coloured pink sand on a beach when you live on the beach?
Lack of scarcity eventually cures the P2P download-desire from even the most dedicated down-loader.

Many readers would know that I regularly conduct tests of the P2P networks for anomalies, memes and themes.

It rises in the East.
A curious statistic that P2P file users are now more likely to be located between the middle east and China. This is the new P2P majority.

One of my recent research efforts was to research all Tom Cruise movies spanning the period 1986 – 2009 to
determine whether P2P traffic hurts or assists Box Office sales.

Cruise’s most current movie, Valkyrie shows some interesting statistics. I noticed this morning that out of the 1120
connections – 912 were from China.

Perceptric Pty. Ltd. Corporate Data

(All 1120 connections

– some lines represent 50+ connections – i.e.: Reverse trace-route on this map shows the city relating to the IP address.)

My first thought was, “What are Chinese people doing watching Tom Cruise in English?”

China is an interesting study for anyone wanting to understand the potential benefit or harm of P2P activity on a country. It does not have the same onerous ISP “Safe Harbour” reporting provisions imposed on it by the government.

The Chinese cinema industry now ranks third in the world behind Hollywood and Bollywood.
Up until mid-2004, prior to production, every script had to be submitted to the Film Censorship Committee of SARFT in order to be considered for a potential filming permit, thereby making the film “legal” for distribution in the 3200 Chinese cinemas.

Recently film industry restrictions have been loosened somewhat to facilitate a growing Chinese film industry. However, before this breakthrough –

many Chinese film-makers worked “underground” with illicit “non-censored” Chinese movies being distributed
via street markets and Chinese internet users.

Chinese cinema celebrated its centenary in 2005 with 250+ films produced that year setting a new record as television began to dominate the Chinese entertainment market in the early 1980s. In 2005 the Chinese economy
grew a staggering 9.8%, but the film industry reported phenomenal growth: 22.6% for the same period.

Due to the decreased censorship, people’s interest in cinema was revived. Community sentiment went from “The film is merely government propaganda” in the 1990’s to the point where cinema ticket sales continue to grow at an aggregate 33% per annum
Even so – Chinese officials still consider that western films add to a widening “cultural deficit” and as a result it is impossible for Hollywood studios to vertically integrate through the value chain by owning a majority share in the theatres. As a result of this policy Hollywood has never reached market dominance.

So now I repeat the question…..  “What are Chinese people doing watching Tom Cruise in English?”

At least 912 Chinese people who downloaded Cruise’s “Valkyrie” movie would have seen what a final solution revolution looked like in another place and time where the state had absolute power.

The statistics on Chinese film production in 2005 was:

Number   Type

3             Blockbusters (over 100 million RMB Production budgets. E.g.: The Promise)
10           10-50 million RMB
240         1.5-3 million RMB (These films are restricted to TV and/or DVD release only because of budget constraints).

Therefore, if Chinese people want a big screen experience during each calendar year, they are restricted to a choice of 13 domestically produced movies – plus overseas Hollywood content.

The average wage in urban areas in 2006 was 1750 Yuan a month or just under $US60.00 per week, and the imperative according to western movies is that capitalists speak English.

So if your daily entertainment budget (after feeding the family) equals $1.30 – are you likely to spend it on visiting the cinema? Or would you buy 20 blank DVD’s and visit a friend’s place who has an Internet connection?

Hollywood may turn its back on China and figure that it is too hard to make a buck there. But the Chinese are
definitely not turning their backs on Hollywood. And when a billion Chinese have their hard discs full of Hollywood content and act as seeders within P2P networks the total ubiquity of all content will not be far away.

And as we all know scarcity drives price.

So once all content is universally available, what will it be worth per unit?