Fi Fi Fo Fum, I smell the Blood of a Hungarian

Hot:

Tom Stuff:

These droids have been trying to kill me since 8th of August using an average of thirty to forty new people per day to do so.

So far they have failed. They hide predominantly behind teenage girls, back-packers, old ladies, aboriginals and complaining to management about the man that complains about getting burned by microwaves.

They speak several languages come from all over the world so their uniting element must be:

Either Secret Society/organisation or religion – I’m leaning towards Jewish (I could be wrong) it might be the Church of

Click Lion for an about video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gen_VniBaHs)

Just remember as you’re watching this – Religion is a wonderful method of managing the herd. It is also a great source of entertainment and doubles as a psychological “group” that has managed to start and fight wars (all without any help from any of the God options.) Actually Church of God is pretty cool – does that mean I can actually meet the dude ? Obviously another distraction.

So Far I have Catholic, Buddhist, Muslim and Jewish interests all after my hide…  I never knew my hide was such a valuable piece of arse.

Back to the Herders…

Who-ever they are – they surround me in backpacker computer centres, supermarkets, the bus, the bus stop, where I sleep, where I stop to eat for five minutes… and take pot shots at me with their mobile phones.  Yeah low power, but I tell you, day in day out 24/7 it can wear a bit thin. It’s being cooked very slowly – one cell at a time. (I gotta say – I’m pretty sure the cooking is to try to stop me using computers whilst the spraying of drugs is so that I die a “natural [heart attack/stroke]  death” or so that I can no longer feel the emf.

The problem is that the more they burn me the more I feel the need to fight against the evil that they represent.

Pretty useless if you ask me. The term that comes to mind from my younger days is “Piss Weak”.

Don’t give in folks.

To fight these people we need to think about the three things that they don’t want.

1.  Their plans Revealed.

2. Resulting in the loss of public support

3. and leading to opposition and resistance and unauthorised survivors…

Err, the Israeli claim to be the originating race down to the English throne is a pile of codswallop so that is a fairly easy one to prove wrong.

Lets try something a little different. We were told recently that Comet Ison burned up on it’s path past the sun.

according to Wiki:

Comet ISON’s formal designation was C/2012 S1.[note 2][58] It was named “ISON” after the organization where its discovery was made, the Russia-based International Scientific Optical Network. The initial report of the object to the Central Bureau for Astronomical Telegrams identified the object as an asteroid, and it was listed on the Near Earth Objects Confirmation Page. Follow-up observations by independent teams were the first to report cometary features. Therefore, under the International Astronomical Union’s comet-naming guidelines, Comet ISON was named after the team that discovered it, rather than the individual discoverers.[59]

someone pointed out to me that ISON translated from HEBREW to ENGLISH on Google Translate meant:

disaster אָסוֹן, שׁוֹאָה, אֵיד, בַּלָהָה
tragedy טְרָגֶדִיָה, אָסוֹן, טְרָגִיוּת
catastrophe קָטַסטרוֹפָה, אָסוֹן, שׁוֹאָה, בַּלָהָה
calamity אָסוֹן, פּוּרעָנוּת, קְלָלָה, אֵיד, מְרוֹרָה, כִּיד
accident תְאוּנָה, מִקרֶה, תַקָלָה, אָסוֹן, קָרֶה, פֶּגַע

Curious… amazing coincidence

I somehow think we haven’t quite seen the end of Comet ISON…

One thing that I have learnt, that if you only a little bit correct… (the stuff that I right about), then they send 200-300 people after you, (They’re the ones that I see). They also suborn the rest of the town.  They must do. Whenever I go back to a store a second time and buy a duplicate item of something that I have purchased before, it is drugged with paliperidone. If i order chips, there are three new employees all falling over themselves to put brown salt on my chips…  or dig out the bag on the bottom shelf… what’s wrong with the bag on top I ask ? Oh they’re dirty from dust, this one is much cleaner for you sir… (I told you very Keystone).

Recapping – they bludgeoned me out of any accommodation that I was in by surrounding it and shooting me with multiple streams of microwaves.

Destroying my Windows laptops and forcing me to remove the WiFi/BlueTooth components of my linux boxes and turn off the 1394 drivers (to disable the ethernet over power).

They stole several items from me forcing me to live in a sub-human fashion.

They enjoy making my life rather miserable by firing frequencies at me that affect my thought processes, toilet and sleeping habits. They seem to enjoy running very complex “scams” on my thought processes by having people walk around me talking about various things. Trying to re program/distract  me by suggestion.

Therefore – not only does it sometimes take me days to do the research I want to do… it takes me days to type the stuff up.

Even so, quite often when I look back at what I have output, I am aghast at the lack of cohesiveness. Then I look at the professional publications of many Youtube “Truth-Tellers” and am forced to laugh.

If they were even slightly close to the truth their lives would be such hell that there is no way known they could produce those professional videos.

So lesson realtruth-101 – based on my experiences over the last year – most of the stuff on Youtube has to be Crapola.

I received the biggest amounts of pain when I discussed:

  • Venus five sided and cometary in nature and coming to visit earth with “bolts of plasma’
  • Red and Blue snakey thing  (in connection with Venus)
  • Asteroids/comets/meteorites
  • S2 Chip in each Digital device
  • Plasma collecting in the Grid
  • Neon/Freon and the danger of CFCL Bulbs, Refrigeration and air-conditioning.
  • S2 Chip (1394 Network with MiMo antenna systems in cars)
  • S2 Chip Data path via Nose, Satellite and adhoc Car network.
  • S2 Chip ground based fresnel zone free car radar network.

Windows 98 on old PC’s with no Atheros chipset or Atheros software and no sound card is probably as cool as it gets – unless you are isolated from the grid (like I was last year via batteries and an inverter and have your laptop surrounded by a Faraday cage (I did), or underground (3 metres minimum.

Smart phones are out. GPS are out. Digital two-way are out… and of course anything that runs Microsoft needs to go to the bottom of the stack real fast. Whilst these guys can do Unix/Linux – they have to tailor make each of their instal scripts to your unique Unix environment – this gives the use a little time. Changing key lib paths is a natty trick or in fact taking everything they might need to use for TCP-IP.

Therefore I suggest that you grab all the scout files and farm them for the above. I am unable to concentrate on putting the content into a searchable SQL database.

But I will do what I can. The harder they try to stuff me up – the more determined I am to find ways of continuing to feed you guys whatever I can that I think will be helpful.

I’m pretty sure that before all this over some red faces will admit they could have handled me a lot more diplomatically instead of trying the bully/scare attitude. (My problem is, that I like most people, – even the Portuguese hired killers …[waves at mercenaries - hi guys...]). My other problem is that I really have been through the mill. It’s hard to scare someone when they have nothing left to loose. The radiation thumping at my heart tells me that my time on this planet is extremely limited with or without their [dubious] help. Dubious in that all that they managed to do was piss me off and make me a lot more determined.

Red Kachina [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHZl3iFt88o] will not be easy. But humanity has lived through it before. (Five times that I can tell.) I am positive that many of us will fly through this one as well.

  • A slowing planet means Pole shift (and flood)
  • the planets hitting us with high levels of plasma means lack of surface water and little or no fauna/flora on the surface. (Lack of fauna to 3 metres depth in the oceans/lakes and rivers as well, in those areas where they are still there.)
  • The tektites and the methane (ex-fumaroles) fire storms will do little for the oxygen levels

But I’ve told you that all before.

So we’ll end on the usual.

Dried food. Toilet Paper. Charcoal for filtering water. Fluoride Tablets for decreasing radiation in your stored water supply.

Water still.  Methane  bio-digester/cooking system.

Urine based fuel cell system. Urea based hydroponics system.

Tilappia/Carp

It is believed that the Egyptians farmed tilapia, a lean white fish with a mild taste, over 3,000 years ago. Today it is the second-most cultivated fish in the world, after carp, according to Fisheries and Oceans Canada. While China is the world’s leading producer of tilapia, just west of Tillsonburg the McLaughlin Brothers are bringing live farmed fish to market in Toronto. Tons of it. Toronto is North America’s largest market for live tilapia, and the World Aquaculture Society predicts that production will rise steadily because of increased demand for the fish.

Tilapia Fish Farming http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AnLe36-Ftk

How to Design your AP System, Aquaponics [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cVKftex9OI0]

 

We Need SOPA/PIPA/ACTA, When Do We Want it ?

Hot:

Globally, Governments are enacting much needed legislative ammmendments to the original laws and constitution of the land.

Online Piracy Top Ten Sites - Chart of the Day

Online Piracy Top Ten Sites - Chart of the Day by Infogafik Statista

 

These legislative imperatives are urgently needed by global commercial interests to insure the criminalisation of everyone over eight years old that either uses or attempts to do any business on the Internet.

I came across a great quote today:

It is so powerful in it’s simplicity that it could even form the basis of an amendment to the constitution of any country.

So, while big business can afford to pay for you to promote broken copyright regulations… I, the modern consumer, don’t have to pay for movements like anonymous to defend my right to get entertainment the way I want it.

What do I want?

  1. I want to download movies; all of them, even the old ones that will
    no longer make a buck for corporates to sell so don’t get
    re-released.

  2.  I want to be able to read and make comments about the
    movie/music/books/whatever at the source of the download.

  3.  I want to NOT pay for unnecessary and un-environmental plastic
    packaging of entertainment.

  4.  I want NEVER to be denied an option to watch a movie, read a book,
    listen to music that is available in other countries, but not in
    my country because of broken copyright laws and regulations that
    you are trying to protect.

I feel sorry for you Neil. You are like a galant captain, going down with his sinking ship. Don’t trick yourself. The copyright laws you are trying to protect are losing. They deserve to as they refuse to evolve and change with the environment around it. Swap teams Neil. Help bring about the much needed change that the Australian public is demanding.” Anonymous Location The internet Date and time February 27, 2012, 7:54AM

A quote from the Comments section of the following Article:

http://www.theage.com.au/it-pro/business-it/preventing-online-theft-benefits-all-20120226-1tw39.html

Another comment linked this great explanation of the topic:
http://theoatmeal.com/comics/game_of_thrones

So when do we want SOPA/PIPA and ACTA ?

Err, Straight after the industry fix the little problem they’ve got delineated by the above comments which will amazingly make the need for SOPA, PIPA and ACTA immediately disappear.

Trying to the right thing with content...

Dear Reader, want to make a change ?

Send the above four items with the Oatmeal Link to every politician you know.

Suggested letter to your local politician:

Cut Here:  ——————————————————————————————————————–

Dear [Insert your local members name here]

 

We the tax paying people of this nation, who elected you to into office so that you could serve our needs, require  that you give consideration to the following items …

The Content Manifesto: (items 1-4 above)

  1. I want to download movies; all of them, even the old ones that will
    no longer make a buck for corporates to sell so don’t get
    re-released.
  2.  I want to be able to read and make comments about the
    movie/music/books/whatever at the source of the download.
  3.  I want to NOT pay for unnecessary and un-environmental plastic
    packaging of entertainment.
  4.  I want NEVER to be denied an option to watch a movie, read a book,
    listen to music that is available in other countries, but not in
    my country because of broken copyright laws and regulations that
    you are trying to protect.

Should you fail to give heed to our requests, then please either reduce our taxes by 38% [hereafter to be known as the discretionary entertainment budget allowance - May also be referred to as the Hollywood Bail-out] so that we the people can afford to be entertained so that we the people will continue to be motivated to work for the taxes, [where jobs are available,] that you need from us or please update your Resume, because we the people won’t be voting for you again.

Of course “we the people” now have cameras on all our phones and are creating enough content on Youtube every eleven days to completely replace all of Hollywoods last 100 years of content creation so if you pass SOPA, PIPA and ACTA, we the people will still have our peer created content, but you won’t have Hollywood lobbyists buying you lunch any more, nor will you have a job.

 Signed

[Insert your name here]

John Q. Citizen.

 

P2P -v- Akamai.

Hot:

In 1994, as CEO of Australia’s fastest growing ISP,  (Ausnet Services), I insisted that we install W3c cache servers at each dial-in pop around Australia.

And we cached the “J” server from Palo Alto to our Portland Oregon offices and then replicated that in Sydney.

All DNS queries on the Ausnet network stayed in Australia saving overseas bandwidth.

Every morning (2:00 am), we analyzed what overseas content the users read yesterday and cached today’s version of that content to make sure that our users had the maximum possible enjoyable online experience.

We were charging by the minute/hour so in effect we were (apparently) working against our own interests by making sure that users had rapid access to their content. So would argue the Telco’s. Nevertheless, in reality, the word of our “network” speed got out to Australians and we were deluged with daily sign-ups. After all APC magazine voted Ausnet as Australia’s best value and fastest ISP several months running.

For a long time – at least until the “Optik Surfer” hacking episode, Ausnet developed the trust of its users.

When we built OGN, the meme continued with the development and construction of the world’s first Terabyte internet cache. We constructed the AUIX and allowed other ISP’s to access the Terabyte cache through the Sydney Internet AUIX facility.

OGN_AUIX_Network_Schematic

However, the Koltai caching concept was only targeted at decreasing internet “lag”, packet loss and increasing the user online experience.

I had not considered the concept of Web 2.0 or Google to increase the user experience by scraping cached content to deliver it in a new format.

This idea was the business model of the Newspapers, Television and radio news.

i.e.: Grab the content from Reuters/AP – add a couple of opinions apply the current editors’ editorial guidelines and publish – charging for the result.

In other words, News organisations were in the aggregation and arbitrage opportunity business.

The internet caching “meme” continued to expand through the nineties until a firm called Akamai utilized young Adrian Chadd’s Squid software and rolled out a worldwide implementation.

Suddenly all ISP’s had the benefits of Akamai caching. Unfortunately, for Akamai, P2P started to become popular about the time they were rolling out.

Akamai’s IPO in November 1999 at $174 per share must have put a smile on quite a few stag investors over the following six months as the share priced grew to nearly $300.00.

As P2P utilisation increases Akamai shares decrease in value to where in the last twelve months the Akamai share price has been trading in the $12.29 – $23.58 range.

Why is that?

Akamai was the big white hope only a few years ago. It would “decongest” the internet – particularly in a country like Australia where the lag time of the pacific fibre transit added an inordinately unacceptable delay to the delivery of each packet of content.

But the Akamai model is based on the concept of server client distribution.

If that model is nullified by:

a)  every ISP installing their own CDN for content distribution (e.g.: TPG Internet – IPTV, Internode TIVO content – Which together if you think about is a winning combination, the old FTA via TCP and the newer Netflix Video on Demand model…),

b)  P2P illegal file sharing,

c)  Mobile Carrier backhaul infrastructure lack or failure,

What then is the winning combination?

Well, one winning combination is the concept of the content cache as the delivery model – theoretically, whoever owns Akamai also owns the world largest Internet Filter and automatically the  largest amount of content. (No, I don’t  own any Akamai shares.)

Is uncle Rupert looking at a triple play with Yahoo and Akamai with a couple of ISP’s in every country thrown in for good measure?

Well possibly not, but if I were he – then that is what I would be looking it.

But, like always, I left out the best part.

The above triple play would only come into it’s own as a Goggle killer with the inclusion of P2P.

After all, today the media lacks consumer trust.

P2P has consumer trust plus it’s edgy, a little bit naughty and currently free.

Gee if you added ubiquitous caching (with appropriate editorial control), added the worlds dominant financial services search engine to the front end and delivered it via P2P, who wouldn’t love it?

Ummmm Google?

The disconnect between the Legislature, The Technology, The Consumer and the Industrialists

Hot:

This article is Part one of a three part series and presents the case that even P2P can become legitimate if the right organisation starts to use it.

Preface:

The following article is a much simplified technical discussion about the Australian HFC networks delivery of content.

Certain liberties for ease of understanding have been taken by the author.  For example, I quote 5 Mbps bandwidth on cable, when most people have seen much higher speeds.  This is justified with the explanation that the number of users on a cable segment and their interactive useage habits contribute greatly to the amount of available bandwidth (download speed) available at any one time to any one user.

—————————————————————————————————–

Many of the articles penned here appear to knock the denizens of our content and legislative peers.

Yet, if no-one ever complains about anything, then how will anything ever improve.

Today’s article will at first appear as if I have lost my mind. [For those convinced that I have already achieved that milestone, I need not
deliberate any further, for those whom consider my humble pearls of wisdom of interest, I regret I am about to apparently disappoint.]

This article is the first article that I have penned that lauds the technical advances that Telstra have made in content delivery.

Sometimes revolutions are noisy affairs with lots of publicity, shooting of ministers, generals and other perceived enemies of the state.

Occasionally, the new order is announced, installed and hardly anyone notices.

Last month a new global technology revolution was announced in Sydney, and it was greeted with nary a whimper.

Yet the technology that Telstra announced for the delivery of their Video on Demand content stream has been the contention of industry vs the
consumer since Napster was announced.

Yet as usual I get ahead of myself.

Each new technology disrupts the forerunner.

Table 1 Transportation Methods

Transport Method

Ox and cart

Horse drawn wagon

Horse

Bicycle

Bicycle

motorcycle

Horse drawn buggy

Car

Horse drawn tram

Electrified trams

Steam ship passenger liner

Airplane

Each “upgrade” created more traffic and paths turned to lanes, roads, highways and eventually motorways.

…and more traffic…

Table 2 Communications

Person to Person (P2P)

Broadcast

Person to Person (P2P)

Runner/messenger

Newspaper

Pony express

Telegraph

Radio

Wireless

Telephone

Television

Satellite/Cable

Internet

Web (Directory Services)

Email, Payments

Email

Twitter

Facebook

With communications, each level of upgrade increased consumer knowledge, participatory commerce and consequently, individual nations economies. i.e.: the countries with the liveliest and lowest cost communications infrastructure became the highest standard of living “industrialized nations”.

Quite often the elements of each of the above tables are utilized together to deliver an item of communication to the recipient.

For example, A telegram circa 1910 would have been delivered via a bicycle, but by 1920, via motorcycle.

Did the telegram delivery persons get upset ? Of course not, they had been given shiny new motorcycles.

The telephone is an interesting analogy for the lack of resources that the internet is about to experience. [I’ll explain that statement shortly…]

In the 1930’s, it was common to deliver a single pair of copper wires to a street and then run extension lines from that first installation.

In this manner, connectivity was achieved a lot quicker than running separate copper pairs from the exchange to each individual house.

Technically it was feasible, but the cost would have been prohibitive.

This system of sharing a single copper between multiple houses was called “party-line”.

One ring was for house number 1, two rings was for house number 2 and three rings for house number three (etc). In some areas, there were 15-20
houses on a single circuit, in which case there was a code implemented, one short and two long was for house 15, two short and one long was for house 11 etc.

It was clumsy, annoying, but much better than not having a telephone.

The major problem was, one never knew, which neighbour was listening into the call.

Line sharing was not restricted to just houses in the same street. If one wanted to make an international phone call, one rang the operator and “booked” the call.

This was because until 1984, Australia only had a total capacity of eighty [80] simultaneous overseas phone line circuits. [i]

Again, one never knew if the operator stayed on the call after connecting you to your overseas party. [I’m sure they didn’t….]

The upside of course, was that good gossip was spread quickly via the “party-line” system, therefore, this was undoubtedly the first form of spoken “broadcast advertising”.

Today on the internet, we go about our browsing, emailing, and the three P’s, (peeking, poking and prying), believing that we are safe from harmful intent; yet hundreds of commercial (NGO) and Government web sites peer back when we visit their www public personae.

Every-time we search for an item on Google, a little flag is filed away about our “preferences”… “ahh, likes electric golf carts….”

Our media choices are similarly filed away by iTunes and other vendors, ostensibly to assist us in making choices in the future.

Email from point A to Point O has to pass through numerous routers, switches and “other” devices to be delivered at the other end.

(Other devices in this instance could be, for example, a computer with Ethernet in and out ports, looking like a router but designed to collect all packets and reassemble them. In other words a sniffer that collects emails.)

The public doesn’t realise it but their communications on the Internet are about as secure as the old “party-lines” from all those decades ago.

Flashback.

1994, Ausnet Services, Sydney Australia with a 64 Kb connection to Portland Oregon, with 9 GB W3C cache servers located in each of Sydney,
Melbourne, Canberra, Brisbane, Adelaide delivered (comparatively) high speed Internet to Australians. Provided… they asked for something that our AI cache engine had calculated they would likely ask for.

Whenever sufficient persons asked for content not in the cache…. Of course the service slowed down to a crawl.

This is a basic bottleneck function of all networks. For Australians, the main bottleneck is the “Pond”.

Ignoring for the moment, the other ingress/egress cable points in Australia)

In 1994 Australians shared 256 Kbps [the AARNET service] for their Internet feeds. Estimates of the time, placed the number of users at around 180,000 [ii]

If each user was connected at 14,400 kbps dial-up modem speed, (the majority were, I assure you), then for those users not on Ausnet services “superior 64 Kb connection, each would have had 1.42 bits per second.

Fortunately, not all users could get online simultaneously, so the average user had at least 12 bits per second. Based on an estimated count of 680 modems servicing Australian Internet in December 1994 and deducting the usage component of Australia’s 36 Universities.

So for early internet adopters who were not at a university, or had their own ISP, getting online in the mid-nineties was was a frustating – redial – engaged – redial – engaged – redial – affair.

Of course in 1994, Australia relied heavily on Tasman 2 to New Zealand, and from thence to Hawaii.

In 1994, Pacrim East and West gave additional bandwidth, but only to Indonesia and Hawaii again with lots of satellite connectivity to take up the slack.

Southern Cross was switched on in 2000 and from their web site…..

“Like its predecessors, Southern Cross Cable Network has aimed to provide
the most advanced and innovative service available in our time. We
have learned from the configuration issues of the TASMAN 2 and PacRim
systems – which missed Fiji and only built as far as Hawaii and Guam
- and ensured that we built a network which is fully integrated and
covers all of the key markets in our region.”

So as can be seen, even the “experts” get it wrong. Telstra controlled access by pricing it at astronomical figures. In 1994, Ausnet was quoted $88,000 per month for a 2 Mb (half circuit) across the pond.

Half Circuit ? Well, that means that the Australian half was connected. Now the other half circuit had to be purchased form a US carrier as well.

Today, the average home ADSL connection is anywhere from 256 Kb to 6 Mbits and for cable customers, quite a bit faster (e.g. A user from Sydney
measured 13762kbps @ Broadband Speedtest.) [although if the head-end is full of cable subscribers, then most users would be better off on ADSL].

This is where the problem was first discovered.

Any system that requires distribution suffers degradation if all users turn on the taps at once.

Which is where it gets rather interesting.

Several months ago, I wrote an article that stipulated that multi-media content (MPEG movies) via cable on an individualized basis was an impossibility on the current bandwidth capabilities of the carriers.

Since then Telstra has upgraded parts of their network (Melbourne to Docsis 3.0)

Docsis 1, 2 & 3? Isn’t that where the user gets more bandwidth?

Not quite. It’s where the cable company get to switch on more users onto the same cable segment. Although early consumer use of enhanced Docsis upgraded services may seem to obtain a net speed and throughput increase.

(The following examples are making allowances for increased Net usage i.e: non-broadcast content)).

Docsis 1 Less than 3 Mbps (average)

Docsis 2 less than 5 Mbps

Docsis 3 less than 5 Mbps

Each of these solutions in itself is of benefit to the Telecommunications service provider. The Speed enhancements are eventually soaked up by the additional users.

More customers are able to be delivered on each platform without replacing all the cables.

However, for an always on service, where users are utilizing the maximum bandwidth constantly during peak periods, e.g.: 7:30 pm to 9:30 pm., even DOCSIS 3 is insufficient to guarantee service levels to all users for non-broadcast type content service delivery.

For example, if everyone in Toowoomba, Queensland decided on a Friday night to download a different HD movie on the BigPond Video on Demand
service, how many of them would be able to stream and watch the movie in real-time ?

Less than 41%.

In our next article we will examine how Telstra since 2005 have been working on a way around the bottleneck problem.

References:

i Farewell to ANZCAN Segment E

http://www.southerncrosscables.com/public/News/newsdetail.cfm?StoryID=54

ii Internet Australasia Magazine, Issue 1 Volume 1[Dec 1994], Internet Providers Guide

Wikipedia Entry on DOCSIS

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DOCSIS

Australian HFC Network

http://www.accc.gov.au/content/item.phtml?itemId=690305&nodeId=e6d85a5da5875697ff0b57c2ff03a63e&fn=Chap+6+Hybrid+Fibre+Coax+(HFC)+Network.pdf

For History Buffs:

The Magic Wire – THE STORY OF SUBMARINE CABLES

http://p38arover.com/INT/magic.htm

(This is a marvelous site and has multiple links about Telecom/Telstra cable installation experiences.)

A Short History of Submarine Cables

http://www.iscpc.org/information/History_of_Cables.htm

Australian File Sharing Drives Musical Instrument Sales – An Anecdote.

Hot:

Last year we blogged about Torrents in Australia being mainly downloaded by Victorians with Craigieburn and Cranbourne in Melbourne being the
hottest Torrent locations in the country.

Today I discovered that there was a musical instrument seller in Cranbourne.

Surprisingly, they are doing extremely well. The Cranbourne shop is doing better than the city shop.

With sales of guitars increasing at the rate of about 10% per year…..

Coincidence?

We don’t think so.

File sharing drives innovation. At least in Cranbourne Victoria there is a strong anecdotal correlation between the two.

McDonald’s place their restaurants deliberately near in high traffic roads.

It would seem that Michael Coleman accidentally did the same thing with his music business.

So is Cranbourne still in the top two Australian cities today? No, it would appear that Torrenting has moved West and South… Adelaide, Hobart Perth followed by Melbourne.

Wouldnt it be interesting if we found that Torrenting was a result of reduced legitimate viewing options in those cities.

Which city has the most FTA, video stores per capita and lowest prices in the suburban discount DVD barrows at the malls ? Hmmm, would it be Sydney ?

The difference between Anecdotal and Empirical.

Hot:

It’s hard to speak up when someone who’s work you admired has seemingly lost the plot.

I read a statement the other day by an eminent Economist who suggested that

Sampling (Exposure Effect)

–         Empirical evidence that sampling doesn’t increase sales.

  • Superior choices of Cable TV generally doesn’t increase viewing hours

    Red and Yellow and Bolding are our enhancements

  • Radio doesn’t appear to  increase record sales.

Unfortunately, although he used the word Empirical, his power-point presentation failed to cite any references.

Which is probably why he didn’t offer the other side of the “Empirical” sampling argument;

Superior choices of Cable TV generally increased subscription numbers to the service which in turn did increase the total exposure to that networks total viewed hours and;

Superior viewing choices lead to higher ratings which in turn result in additional advertising revenues for the network, and;

Increased the number of persons that purchased DVR/TiVo/etc or large screen home Cinema systems.

And as for Radio not increasing record sales…. I am curious how far back in History this particularly economists empirical data runs.

In 1936,  as the great depression was in it’s final throws, public performances of songs were at the local diners and other youth recreation centres.

In the fifties, town councils were shutting down local radio stations that insisted on playing the Devil’s Rock & Roll music.

The entire Top forty Chart system was designed to build the hype of popular record sales and is the basis of today’s record industry.

Who can forget Casey Kasem (Coast to Coast) and the Wolfman Jack counting down the American Top forty…..

Possibly some persons didn’t listen to radio or the Top forty, anecdotally, I used to and purchased 45’s, L.P.s and CD’s on the basis of music heard on the Radio, as I am sure many others did.

Unfortunately, we have empirical evidence that sampling does in fact increase record sales and cultural event concert attendance which in turn has been empirically proven to increase record sales even further.

Economists shouldn’t be attempting to brainwash the next batch of up and coming world leaders with incorrect thought processes.

Just because an Economist says that something is so, does not mean that his “empirical” findings are from an empirical data result.

We offer a dictionary explanation of the difference between Empirical and Anecdotal.

Empiric \Em*pir”ic\, Empirical \Em*pir”ic*al\, a.

  1. Pertaining to, or founded upon, experiment or experience; depending upon the observation of phenomena; versed in experiments.

In philosophical language, the term empirical means simply what belongs to or is the product of experience or observation. –Sir W. Hamilton.

The village carpenter . . . lays out his work by empirical rules learnt in his apprenticeship. –H. Spencer.

  1. Depending upon experience or observation alone, without due regard to science and theory; — said especially of medical practice, remedies, etc.; wanting in science and deep insight; as, empiric skill, remedies.

Empirical formula. (Chem.) See under Formula.

Syn: See Transcendental

Source: Webster’s Revised Unabridged Dictionary (1913)

Anecdotal \An”ec*do`tal\, a.

Pertaining to, or abounding with, anecdotes; as, anecdotal conversation.

Source: Webster’s Revised Unabridged Dictionary (1913)

anecdotal adj
1: having the character of an anecdote; “anecdotal evidence”
2: characterized by or given to telling anecdotes; “anecdotal conversation”; “an anectodal history of jazz”; “he was at his anecdotic best”

[syn: anecdotic, anecdotical]

Source: WordNet (r) 2.0


We think the argument should have been;

–         Anecdotal evidence that sampling doesn’t increase sales.

Superior choices of Cable TV generally doesn’t increase individual consumers viewing hours

  • Radio in my opinion in the last ten years doesn’t appear to  increase record sales.

Empirical evidence from a number of industry and non-profit surveys shows that;

Radio has been supplanted to a certain extent by additional music media choices,

  • Computer games
  • iPods
  • Mobile Phones

There appears a strong correlation between the efforts of the music industry attempted to lock down music via DRM and legal actions against file sharing, music sales and the listening to music by 8-18 year olds declined. (1999-2004)

As technical alternatives to radio evolved (iPods, Phones, Games – iTunes Music Store 2004)  evolved and digital music sales were legitimized, both the music listening and sales of music increased. (2004-2009)

Media Engagement time appears to have a strong correlation to media purchases

UK Music Sales (Singles 1998-–2009) vs Kaiser Report – Music Listening Media Generation

And whilst traditional broadcast radio being listened to maybe reducing in the younger generations, the alternative technology “radios” streams are increasing….

  • Digital Streaming Internet Radio (Last.fm – Spotify))
  • Digital Broadcast & Satellite Radio
  • Mobile Phone “FM Radio”

Today there are 3 different types of Radio, Cellphones, iPods and Radios

These revelations are clearly confirmed by the Japanese music sales showing

The dominance of Mobile phone digital sales versus Internet sales.

Japanese Smartphone Music listeners are outbuying PC-based Internet Music users 10-1

As the Kaiser Foundation report found “that with technology allowing nearly 24-hour media access as children and teens go about their daily lives, the amount of time young people spend with entertainment media has risen dramatically, especially among minority youth.

Therefore media playback devices, including four different types of “Radio” have enabled music fans to once again tune into their music and demonstrate their interest financially through purchases.

Pure Music listening declined from 1999-2004 but was resuscitated with legal Digital downloads from iTMS

The sales above clearly reflect the increased media time listening to music – of which Radio plus Radio replacement technology advances plays a big role.

Anecdotally, for the converse argument, we could analyse what happened to the recording industry in the USA when ASCAP banned the playing of the music it represented on radio stations of the era.

ASCAP’s rival, Broadcast Music, Inc. (BMI), offered Radio stations it’s collection of music that had not been turned down b y ASCAP, predominantly consisting of African American  composers and artists, Blues and Soul from unknown artists. The result was another wave of decentralization within the industry, as previously scorned artists, styles, and companies gained access to the airwaves and recording studios. The shift opened the door for African American styles to be the guiding force behind the industry’s postwar expansion.

(I’m sure there are elements of the Recording industry that are still walking around and mumbling dark thoughts about indie music labels getting a foot in the door…..)

Lee, Boatwright & Kamakura suggest that the number of plays a record receives on commercial radio stations is a strong primary indication of successful pre sales promotional effort on  behalf of the record publisher.

They cite (Blake, 1992 & Fink 1996) – Record companies consider radio airplay to be the most direct way of exposing a record to the buying public with the main tools being special promotional copies of the record, called “promo” records, which are placed in the hands of broadcasters and programming consultants.

All in all, we would suggest that lecturers in economics that would argue :

–         Empirical evidence that sampling doesn’t increase sales.

  • Superior choices of Cable TV generally doesn’t increase viewing hours
  • Radio doesn’t appear to  increase record sales.

Without citing hard data, are actual either mixing metaphors or possibly suffering a form of Alzheimer’s that we will call will call politely, Dyslexia….

Conclusion:

Empirical is not spelt anecdotal.

References:

Illegal Music Downloading and its Impact on Legitimate Sales: Australian Empirical Evidence Jordi Mckenzie August 13, 2009

https://editorialexpress.com/cgi-bin/conference/download.cgi?db_name=ACE09&paper_id=205

Generation M2: Media in the Lives of 8-18 Year-olds – Report

http://www.kff.org/entmedia/upload/Generation-M-Media-in-the-Lives-of-8-18-Year-olds-Report.pdf

A Bayesian model for prelaunch sales forecasting of recorded music

Jonathan Lee • Peter Boatwright • Wagner A. Kamakura

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.80.3242&rep=rep1&type=pdf

Music Industry Answers.com

http://www.answers.com/topic/music-industry

Japan as a Control Statistic for File Sharing Analysis Studies.

http://kovtr.com/wordpress/?p=168

The Stereo is Dead Long Live the Game Console

Hot:

Music Centre of the Home 1950-1998 = 31 Billion $$$ Worldwide P.A

A report from the USA has just identified what every geek in the world has known for about five years. That Game consoles are becoming standard fare in the USA and an important integral part of the home entertainment system.

In fact not a part of, they have become THE home entertainment system in many US homes.

So if the Stereo is dead, and game consoles mainly deliver interact live 3D games, Blue-ray videos and online interactive games then what device is left in the home for the music business to sell their wares onto ?

iPod/iPhone – Music Centre of the Home 2001-??? = 2.5 Billion $$$ Worldwide

Oh, the iPhone. Gee, that’s a pretty small device compared to the stereo units of old isn’t it? I guess sales must be down then, huh?

And now for something completely different……

Game Consoles Taking over Home Entertainment 1972-1975

That’s ok, it will grow, as soon as Jobs buys the failing music publishers and rolls out iTunes worldwide… …. then again, he could just wait for 2013 and allow the copyrights to return to their original rightful owners.

What does THAT mean?

Game Consoles taking over Home Entertainment 1975-2010

(This is a quote from an article I penned last year….)

OK, it’s simple, when a new artist or filmmaker creates a work, he needs marketing to ensure it’s success. He/she normally assign their rights in the copyright to obtain financing by a major label or studio so that the work can become successful. Those rights are now slowly coming to an end.

35 years from 1976 is 2013. Which is the year that we will start to see the BIG lawsuits. Hollywood of course doesn’t want to see the end to their ownership of their libraries so will doubtlessly fight each and every copyright distribution termination notice.

So all this ACTA type – 3 strikes legislation is really about Hollywood and the Music Industry tying up the assets before the floodgates are opened in four years time.

Yep. It’s not about ensuring new content, it’s about corralling, keeping and milking the old.

So what is the music business actually worth if their copyrights are going to start extinguishing in 2013?

Not a lot really….. and, what ever that not a lot equals, it will depreciate every year after 2013.

So Jobs won’t actually buy the music biz.

Well, one has to ask in these circumstances (anecdotally) ….. would you buy them ?

Empirically,  he has already aligned himself with several independant publishers (e.g.: CD Baby).

So Jobs isn’t counting on the legislators coming through then.

Nope, he’s just mosying along, doing the business.

References:

Game Consoles Integral to Digital Home

http://www.emarketer.com/Article.aspx?R=1007701

The Monty Python, “And now for someting completely different foot”

The Music Industry, The Horrible ISP’s and the Unpaid Music Transit Bill

Hot:

The Music Industry insist that the ISP’s are responsible for their losses, imagined or otherwise from file sharing.

In fact in the IFPI’s 2010 Digital Music Report, ISP appears to be mentioned 31 times.

Here are a few of the references:

Page 6

But if these products and services are to flourish we also need help from governments and ISPs.”

Page 7

There have to be sanctions, ISPs have to be involved and there needs to be back-up legislation. I would have preferred a purely commercial solution to achieve this, but sadly it doesn’t look as if that is going to happen. That is why there needs to be the encouragement coming from  legislation.”

Page 7

Legislation, ISP cooperation

The music industry and other creative sectors around the world are seeking to engage ISPs in curbing digital piracy on their networks. In most countries, this requires help from governments in establishing a consistent and effective response from the entire ISP community.

Page 7

IFPI first called for ISPs to cooperate in a graduated response system in 2005. Five years later, voluntary means have largely failed to progress. A number of governments however, including France, UK, New Zealand, South Korea and Taiwan, have enacted legislation to require such cooperation or are in the process of doing so.

Page 21

Garrett sees the solution as a combination of “monetisation” and legislation engaging ISPs in curbing piracy.

Page 22

Calls for ISP action

Creative industries are looking to ISPs to address this problem. Renshaw says:

They are like the utility companies of the 21st century – colossal industries which have the right and the ability to provide all this content. But unless we engage the ISPs in assisting in the protection of rights, then the value of copyright is going to disappear.”

Right and ability? They’re ISP’s. Unless they are licensed they have no “Right” and the “Ability” is that they rent the plumbing from a Telco and then sublease a portion of the plumbing to a consumer.

Page 24

The graduated response approach has become the focus of the music industry’s campaign for action by ISPs to address digital piracy.

One of the key benefits of a graduated response system is its effectiveness and proportionality compared to the alternative approach of mass legal actions and prosecutions under existing laws.

Under this system, the holders of accounts identified by rights holders as being used for infringement are sent notices by their ISP. The notice would advise them to stop infringing and suggest the use of a legitimate

service that respects copyright and rewards rights holders. An escalating series of warnings would result, as a last resort, in temporary internet account suspension for those few who refuse to stop.

Obviously the current IPFI report is a well organized, nicely laid out but unfortunately misleading attempt at influencing UK Members of Parliament and the Heads of State in the EU in regards to introducing legislation forcing ISP’s to become the content industries unpaid, enforcement arms.

I have an alternative content industry.

The magic words from Page 22 give us a clue….

But unless we engage the ISPs in assisting in the protection of rights then the value of copyright is going to disappear.”

On Page 21, Garrett got closer to the solution, “monetization and …. engaging ISP’s”.

Let’s get back to that file-sharing thing. As we said above, some real, some imagined.

We believe that some are imagined and some are real. But as there has ever been any “official” empirical data collection and analysis – no-one except for for a couple of discredited (by the music industry and their paid consultants) academics and I. No-one has paid me, so at least I know that my results are accurate. My results, as regular readers would know are based on six months worth of data collection compared to six months of ARIA charts analysis and six months worth of sales figures (where available) – found there that early file sharing in a musical compositions public life would appear to enhance it’s chart prospects as well as provide much needed exposure for the artist.

In fact we found a (58.6%) direct correlation between the length of time that a musical composition would stay on the charts and files sharing. (Long story will be covered in a separate posting.)

Unfortunately, we also found that file sharing after a song had reached the top of the charts could not enjoy the benefit of being counted as promotional; and therefore counts towards a potential loss for the industry – based on of course the unknowns which include, down-loaders financial capability, age and whether or not down-loaders sampled and then purchased. )

In 2007, Forrester’s announced the imminent decline of the music industry but suggested that there was still life in Radio…..

With Only 7% of the data source electing to listen to online music.


We thought we would check to see how that was going…..

Akamai has built a very successful business out of Adrian Chad’s Edge caching technology that he developed for OGN back in 1997. Their servers now offer caching services to thousands of web providers globally. They would appear to cache about 31% of the global commercial traffic, (excluding Google, Facebook and a few of the other companies that can afford their own distributed CDN services).

Source: http://www.akamai.com/html/technology/nui/music/index.html

Today, they are caching an average of around sixty Gigabytes of music per second being delivered worldwide. If we are correct in our assessment of their global cache percentage, this means that the world is consuming 153.8 Gb of music per second. In Australia that is valued at a retail ADSL cost of $192.01.

Region

High

Low

Median

@ 128 kbit datastream

North America

331,767

132706.8

232,237

29,726,323

South America

6,968

2787.2

4,878

624,333

Europe

244,931

97972.4

171,452

21,945,818

Asia (Pacific)

79,835

31934

55,885

7,153,216

Africa

6,282

2512.8

4,397

562,867

Australia

17,120

6848

11,984

1,533,952

Total

61,546,509

That comes to a paltry $ (AUD) 6,059,668,261 (P.A.) or $16,590,467 (p/day) of bandwidth that they are not paying for but that is passing over the routers, switches and ADSL circuits of the very ISP’s that they are demonising with their outrageous claims.

Whilst most people consider that the music industry is in a terminal tailspin with the lowering revenue stream coming from Digital sales versus physical media sales, most are not calculating the saving to the industry of not having to:

  • manufacture product

  • stockpile product

  • ship product

  • accept returns of unsold product

  • get rid of returns

(At an average cost of $2.38 per CD.)

This six billion dollar annual transit cost bill is something else that they are not paying.

We think that if the music business doesn’t want to alienate the ISP’s too much, or get a bill for the transit of the streaming music, that they should back off just a little in their claims that the ISP’s are destroying their livelihood.

We think that is a long way away from the real truth – that curiously looks something like this…..


What would I do if my name was John Kennedy?

Well, if I was serious about eliminating file-sharing I would think carefully about cutting a deal for every ISP and Telco in the world.

Offering each of them a distribution agreement for all digital music content.

Making it worth their while.

I would forget this pie in the sky business of only doing deals with the big guys.

The big guys like Telstra are cutting deals, but they’re also allowing P2P to run across their networks.

If all ISP’s have the same reason to kill off P2P downloads, (profit motive) then all ISP’s will work together to stamp it out.

If only some ISP’s have access to the catalogue then they will be loathe to disconnect users for fear of losing business.

Once all ISP’s have reseller rights, watch file sharing disappear so quickly, it will make the music industries head spin and the cash registers ring.

Besides, the ISP’s need some way of paying for all that transit.

References:

Akamai Data Collection Methoodology:

http://www.akamai.com/html/technology/nui/music/methodology.html

IFPI 2010 Digital Music Report (DMR)

With Only 7% of the data source electing to listen to online music.

We thought we would check to see how that was going…..

Akamai has built a very successful business out of Adrian Chad’s Edge caching technology that he developed for OGN back in 1997. Their servers now offer caching services to thousands of web providers globally. They would appear to cache about 31% of the global commercial traffic, (excluding Google, Facebook and a few of the other companies that can afford their own distributed CDN services).

Just the Facts please Ma’am and Don’t give me no Bull.

Hot:

Regular readers have started to work out the direction of my postings

However, not everyone is a regular reader.

So what is this blog about?

This blog is mainly about the possibility of the world turning into George Orwell’s predicted 1984 and is my small part in preventing that “happenstance” from eventuating.

Happenstance? Well, what else do you call it when Politicians, promoted by the rank and file of citizenry comply with the requests of the largest election campaign donors by:

  • Allowing the campaign donors to draft legislation
  • Allowing campaign donors to dictate international policy on a diplomatic level
  • Introduce unwanted, unfathomable and economically unsound legislation on the request of the campaign donors

We have a number of nouns that we could apply to politicians who behave in this manner, none of which are flattering. Fortunately, we don’t believe that all politicians behave in this manner, some would appear to have the needs of their citizenry at the top of their to-do list.

Therefore we think that “Happenstance” is the polite way of describing what appears to be occurring on a Global scale.

In this regard, we review some inaccurate and potentially misleading (partisan) reporting by eminent economists, designed to influence the peoples elected representatives to comply with industry paid lobbyists requests for legislative changes that are designed to

  • remove citizens rights through the denial of the right to a democratic free press;
  • allow commercial interests to dictate matters of jurisprudential behaviour to our courts;
  • allow persons without legal copyright training be the sole arbiters of content on digital devices carried by persons engaged in international travel,
  • not permit those decisions to be subject to normal legal due process (appeal).

– In other words, the proposed amendments to our legislation on a global scale would tend to confirm that everyone (that is chosen, that has a phone or mp3 player or laptop computer) is guilty of copyright infringement.

(So far we are still stuck on the Tera Report, [with obvious good reasons] but we shall be moving on in the near future to other econometric reports that are based on cleverly justified algebraic formulas, suppositions, guesses and estimates rather than hard empirical file sharing data.

We shall be starting a philosophical examination of the reasons WHY the Content Creation Industry considers that file sharing has damaged it’s revenue stream and;

We shall be instigating an examination of household expenditure from the fifties through to 2010 to analyse and compare where the “missing” money has gone.

In our article on Vivendi, we demonstrated that even though file sharing is claimed to be damaging the music industry, cable companies, video on demand, and video game companies;

Vivendi (a company that has as its principle business models, music publishing, cable content delivery, video on demand, video games and telecommunications ’s revenues have managed to grow (with positive revenues) throughout all of the purported file sharing damage, whilst we are in the middle of a recession.

This article alone should give the reader reason for pausing and reconsidering the facts.

The facts are, there is no empirical data at all proving that file sharing damages the Content industry. Anecdotal? Yes. Circumstantial? Yes. Empirical, backed by hard data? No.

I conclude today’s note” with a comment directed at every politician contemplating;

  • Three strikes legislation,
  • Assent to the ACTA Trade Agreement
  • Criminal penalties to be imposed for file sharing

To consider carefully the trail of politicians throughout history that acted against the interests of the public to satisfy a few industrialists.

It is our contention, which this blog will do it’s utmost to prove that:

  1. File sharing does not cause financial loss and damage to the majority of the content industry
  2. File sharing is no different to loaning a friend your CD collection so that he may tape it.
  3. File sharing is no different to taping a missed episode of a favourite TV show.
  4. File sharing is no different to watching free to air television, listening to the radio or using Goggle  find a keyword in relation to a news article.

The reality is that we live in a Digital world and the only damage to content creators is the (now slowly fading) refusal to accept the reality of “currency of content”.

Unfortunately in the ten years that it took the Content Industry to bow to consumer pressure and release their catalogues digitally, an entire generation learned an alternative methodology of satisfying the technical and sociological imperative.

Since 2004, with the widely publicized but p00rly populated catalogue offering of iTunes (initially less than 250,000 songs) we have seen a steady growth in music sales, DVD sales, DVD rentals, cinema attendance figures, all of which have been rising until the current recession.

Has file sharing damaged the sales of the music industry in the past?

Only in the same manner that the colour black damaged Henry Ford’s business plans.

“Sir, you can have the car in any colour as long as it’s black”.

…and we all know how that turned out.

References:

Koltai T. (September 26, 2009) Members of Parliament – Why Did Your Son Just Buy a One Terabyte Hard-disk?

(PDF)

File Sharing Myth-Buster – Myth #1 File sharing is Killing the Video Rental Business.

Hot:

Location Location Location.

In the Western Suburbs of Sydney, in 1994, a small video chain opened a subsidiary shop with approximately 1500 video titles (VHS) and three staff members.

Today the store has twelve full-time employees, several part-time employees and according to the store evening manager, “doing better than in all the years he has been there” (since 1994).

The store is conveniently far enough away from the nearest Woolworths (8 km) or Aldi (11 km) or Coles (7 km) discount DVD sales bargain Bin.

There are no Pawn shops or second hand stores for at least 15 km.

There are however, seven primary schools and three secondary schools within a 9 kilometres radius.

69% of the local residents have broadband installed in their homes.

“The DVD’s are racing out of the store” he said, “especially on discount Wednesdays and Thursdays. People hire ten at a time sometimes”.

I looked around the store. At 7:00 pm there were approximately 25 people browsing the shelves, four people lined up at the counter and three staff members serving them.

The customer numbers were reminiscent of the first video shop [Video World] in Australia that I opened in Darwin in 1982, in the years prior to Foxtel, Satellite and file-sharing.

“So doesn’t file sharing hurt your rentals?” I asked.

He replied, “You mean Torrents, don’t you?” I nodded, “Nah, I think everyone does it, but then they run out of their monthly download limits and they rent movies like they always did.”

“What about Foxtel?” I asked.

“We hear that a lot. Nothing worth watching on Foxtel, that’s why they’re in here.”

That was about it. I asked him some questions about his numbers, thanked him politely and left to go home to Google “Torrent” Trends.

A year or so ago, we did an article on global rising trend for torrents and found that Melbourne Australia was a global hotspot for Torrent interest which appeared to concentrate on Craigieburn.

Well stats have a habit of changing. Here are the stats for Torrent interest by City from around the world.

The Top Ten Torrent Cities in the World.

World

Rating

City Torrent Score
10 Milan (Italy) 0.36
9 Warsaw (Poland) 0.385
8 Helsinki (Finland) 0.405
7 Sydney (Australia) 0.415
6 Toronto (Canada) 0.445
5 Melbourne (Australia) 0.45
4 Amsterdam (Netherlands) 0.465
3 Montreal (Canada) 0.53
2 Delhi (India) 0.75
1 Budapest (Hungary) 1

N.B. Total Torrent Score is just on 5 as at March 2010, so the torrent scores are a total of 5 as a percentage therefore Hungary represents one fifth of all torrent Google searches  and Sydney just under one tenth – Ummm, that’s ten percent of the worlds searches for Torrents – Just in case there was a misunderstanding.

Sydney, the home town to the little corner video store, at number 7 on our Top ten chart.

Some would say being in the top ten of cities most interested in Torrents is bad. Like IPRI, who’s report we analysed last year.

We said:

Notwithstanding that in the writers opinion they have understated dramatically the amount of P2P actually occurring within a number of countries, for example within Australia, the latest Whirlpool Internet Report (http://whirlpool.net.au/survey/2008/) shows that 53% of Australians utilise file sharing software.

Another way of looking at the data is comparing the volume of P2P to the IPRI rating for the country. It would appear that  generally, the higher the IPRI rating – the lower the P2P file sharing AND the lower the Real GDP accelerated growth

In the UK, DVD rentals are reducing because ….

… it would appear that they are being cannibalized by the industry itself via sales.

So for a city that is rated number five and number seven on the world top ten trend for interest in Torrents, how did we do in this years Digital Music Report?

Strong downloading demand helped Australia become one of the few developed music markets to achieve the “holy grail” of overall growth in the first half of 2009, as the rise in digital music sales offset a small decline in revenues from physical formats. Digital album sales nearly doubled in the first half of 2009, representing almost 8 per cent of overall album sales, and digital albums are proving especially popular in the early days after a title’s release (ARIA).

[Authors comment on the foregoing sentence. File sharing has always been about the lack of available legal digital content, therfore we would have thought that is was no suprise to the industry that users wanted day/date releases of music, movies and Television shows. It irks me somewhat for IFPI to make the declaration as if it was a deep revelation that was arrived at by some academics after ten years of research.]

It took Australia one five year generational wave to move from a loss making situation to a profit situation.

When did iTunes arrive in Australia ? 25-Oct-05

Well gee, Koltai, File sharing must have damaged something…… what about the movies?

With Australian cities holding the fifth and seventh position on Google trends for inquiring about Torrent downloads, cinema ticket sales must be falling huh?

I guess not.

What about those Hungarians…. They must be killing the cinema in Hungary.

Apparently not. From Hungary’s Online English Business Daily News;

Cinemas in Hungary sold 6.95m tickets in the first eight months of 2009, an increase of 142,000 from the first eight months of 2008, the business daily Napi Gazdasag reported on Friday.

Revenue from the ticket sales reached HUF 7.35bn (EUR 27.3m) in January-August, up HUF 687m yr/yr.

Clearly now that digital downloads are becoming commonplace and digital catalogues are starting to look healthy, sales as well as video on demand are obviously matching the availability of the content or is it that we reached a point in time where digital content catalogues are finally matching the consumers requirements for content.

So the only question is why the industry continues to insist that file sharing damages it’s member clients business models.

Glossary:

Foxtel: Australian cable TV, sort of like HBO on a diet forced to regurgitate every piece of content 20-50 times a year.

References:

DMR2010 IFPI

2009 IPRI Report IPRI

N.B. I repeat, we don’t believe the IPRI P2P numbers at all… and we have the stats from our very own Lugundum server that we ran last year (at the same time as IPRI were compiling their report, which shows a direct correlation between GDP growth and P2P, which is merely hinted at in the above Graphic. (The purple P2P area are from IPRI supplied numbers.)

Yes, we will eventually be publishing our findings in this regard.

Ibid.

Google Trends; Torrent

World = http://www.google.com/trends?q=torrent++&ctab=0&geo=all&geor=all&date=all&sort=0

Australia = http://www.google.com/trends?q=torrent++&ctab=0&geo=au&geor=all&date=all&sort=0

Get ThePicture

http://www.screenaustralia.gov.au/gtp/wcboadmission.html

Original data supplied by MPDAA.

Cinema attendance rises despite economic crisis

http://www.realdeal.hu/20091012/cinema-attendance-rises-despite-economic-crisis

About the Author:

Tom Koltai is an Economist in Sydney Australia.

He has not been paid by anyone to write this article.