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It’s hard to speak up when someone who’s work you admired has seemingly lost the plot.
I read a statement the other day by an eminent Economist who suggested that
Sampling (Exposure Effect)
– Empirical evidence that sampling doesn’t increase sales.
- Superior choices of Cable TV generally doesn’t increase viewing hours
Red and Yellow and Bolding are our enhancements
- Radio doesn’t appear to increase record sales.
Unfortunately, although he used the word Empirical, his power-point presentation failed to cite any references.
Which is probably why he didn’t offer the other side of the “Empirical” sampling argument;
Superior choices of Cable TV generally increased subscription numbers to the service which in turn did increase the total exposure to that networks total viewed hours and;
Superior viewing choices lead to higher ratings which in turn result in additional advertising revenues for the network, and;
Increased the number of persons that purchased DVR/TiVo/etc or large screen home Cinema systems.
And as for Radio not increasing record sales…. I am curious how far back in History this particularly economists empirical data runs.
In 1936, as the great depression was in it’s final throws, public performances of songs were at the local diners and other youth recreation centres.
In the fifties, town councils were shutting down local radio stations that insisted on playing the Devil’s Rock & Roll music.
The entire Top forty Chart system was designed to build the hype of popular record sales and is the basis of today’s record industry.
Who can forget Casey Kasem (Coast to Coast) and the Wolfman Jack counting down the American Top forty…..
Possibly some persons didn’t listen to radio or the Top forty, anecdotally, I used to and purchased 45’s, L.P.s and CD’s on the basis of music heard on the Radio, as I am sure many others did.
Unfortunately, we have empirical evidence that sampling does in fact increase record sales and cultural event concert attendance which in turn has been empirically proven to increase record sales even further.
Economists shouldn’t be attempting to brainwash the next batch of up and coming world leaders with incorrect thought processes.
Just because an Economist says that something is so, does not mean that his “empirical” findings are from an empirical data result.
We offer a dictionary explanation of the difference between Empirical and Anecdotal.
Empiric \Em*pir”ic\, Empirical \Em*pir”ic*al\, a.
In philosophical language, the term empirical means simply what belongs to or is the product of experience or observation. –Sir W. Hamilton. The village carpenter . . . lays out his work by empirical rules learnt in his apprenticeship. –H. Spencer.
Empirical formula. (Chem.) See under Formula. Syn: See Transcendental Source: Webster’s Revised Unabridged Dictionary (1913) |
Anecdotal \An”ec*do`tal\, a.
Pertaining to, or abounding with, anecdotes; as, anecdotal conversation. Source: Webster’s Revised Unabridged Dictionary (1913) |
| anecdotal adj 1: having the character of an anecdote; “anecdotal evidence” 2: characterized by or given to telling anecdotes; “anecdotal conversation”; “an anectodal history of jazz”; “he was at his anecdotic best” [syn: anecdotic, anecdotical] Source: WordNet (r) 2.0
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We think the argument should have been;
– Anecdotal evidence that sampling doesn’t increase sales.
Superior choices of Cable TV generally doesn’t increase individual consumers viewing hours
- Radio in my opinion in the last ten years doesn’t appear to increase record sales.
Empirical evidence from a number of industry and non-profit surveys shows that;
Radio has been supplanted to a certain extent by additional music media choices,
- Computer games
- iPods
- Mobile Phones
There appears a strong correlation between the efforts of the music industry attempted to lock down music via DRM and legal actions against file sharing, music sales and the listening to music by 8-18 year olds declined. (1999-2004)
As technical alternatives to radio evolved (iPods, Phones, Games – iTunes Music Store 2004) evolved and digital music sales were legitimized, both the music listening and sales of music increased. (2004-2009)
Media Engagement time appears to have a strong correlation to media purchases
UK Music Sales (Singles 1998-–2009) vs Kaiser Report – Music Listening Media Generation
And whilst traditional broadcast radio being listened to maybe reducing in the younger generations, the alternative technology “radios” streams are increasing….
- Digital Streaming Internet Radio (Last.fm – Spotify))
- Digital Broadcast & Satellite Radio
- Mobile Phone “FM Radio”
Today there are 3 different types of Radio, Cellphones, iPods and Radios
These revelations are clearly confirmed by the Japanese music sales showing
The dominance of Mobile phone digital sales versus Internet sales.
Japanese Smartphone Music listeners are outbuying PC-based Internet Music users 10-1
As the Kaiser Foundation report found “that with technology allowing nearly 24-hour media access as children and teens go about their daily lives, the amount of time young people spend with entertainment media has risen dramatically, especially among minority youth.”
Therefore media playback devices, including four different types of “Radio” have enabled music fans to once again tune into their music and demonstrate their interest financially through purchases.
Pure Music listening declined from 1999-2004 but was resuscitated with legal Digital downloads from iTMS
The sales above clearly reflect the increased media time listening to music – of which Radio plus Radio replacement technology advances plays a big role.
Anecdotally, for the converse argument, we could analyse what happened to the recording industry in the USA when ASCAP banned the playing of the music it represented on radio stations of the era.
ASCAP’s rival, Broadcast Music, Inc. (BMI), offered Radio stations it’s collection of music that had not been turned down b y ASCAP, predominantly consisting of African American composers and artists, Blues and Soul from unknown artists. The result was another wave of decentralization within the industry, as previously scorned artists, styles, and companies gained access to the airwaves and recording studios. The shift opened the door for African American styles to be the guiding force behind the industry’s postwar expansion.
(I’m sure there are elements of the Recording industry that are still walking around and mumbling dark thoughts about indie music labels getting a foot in the door…..)
Lee, Boatwright & Kamakura suggest that the number of plays a record receives on commercial radio stations is a strong primary indication of successful pre sales promotional effort on behalf of the record publisher.
They cite (Blake, 1992 & Fink 1996) – Record companies consider radio airplay to be the most direct way of exposing a record to the buying public with the main tools being special promotional copies of the record, called “promo” records, which are placed in the hands of broadcasters and programming consultants.
All in all, we would suggest that lecturers in economics that would argue :
– Empirical evidence that sampling doesn’t increase sales.
- Superior choices of Cable TV generally doesn’t increase viewing hours
- Radio doesn’t appear to increase record sales.
Without citing hard data, are actual either mixing metaphors or possibly suffering a form of Alzheimer’s that we will call will call politely, Dyslexia….
Conclusion:
Empirical is not spelt anecdotal.
References:
Illegal Music Downloading and its Impact on Legitimate Sales: Australian Empirical Evidence Jordi Mckenzie August 13, 2009
https://editorialexpress.com/cgi-bin/conference/download.cgi?db_name=ACE09&paper_id=205
Generation M2: Media in the Lives of 8-18 Year-olds – Report
http://www.kff.org/entmedia/upload/Generation-M-Media-in-the-Lives-of-8-18-Year-olds-Report.pdf
A Bayesian model for prelaunch sales forecasting of recorded music
Jonathan Lee • Peter Boatwright • Wagner A. Kamakura
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.80.3242&rep=rep1&type=pdf
Music Industry Answers.com
http://www.answers.com/topic/music-industry
Japan as a Control Statistic for File Sharing Analysis Studies.
http://kovtr.com/wordpress/?p=168
related post
- The Music Industry Twelve Year Technology Cycle (A Retrospective Analysis)
- Piracy or Common Sense - Top Reasons why Music Sales MIGHT be/ARE down.
- So how hard is it to do business in Australia?
- SMS Power Versus Hollywood, Radio, Videogames & the Music Industry.
- Other Reasons Music Sales might be Down “The Missing Five Minutes”
The issue I have, and the reason that I came to this site, is that empirical does equal anecdotal if you read the second definition of empirical:
Depending upon experience or observation alone, without due regard to science and theory; — said especially of medical practice, remedies, etc.
Empirical is a flawed word that can mean both experimental and anecdotal. It’s a bit like semiannual which can mean biennial or biannual. Really, ‘empirical’ should be done away with in most contexts and replaced by a word with a clearer meaning.
Ahh, but the Second definition was written in 1913 I believe.
A little bit bit of Koltai humour. Use out of date definitions in an attempt to poke fun at what current proffessors are doing in our universities today….
Your argument suggests that empirical is reached when the cumulative weight of annecdotal evidence becomes so overwhelmingly conclusive that it can no longer be considered annecdotal.
An example of where that might not apply:
An annecdote would be: Today I thought I saw a flying saucer.
In the following few days, a meme spreads across YouTube with 23 uploaded CGI videos of various shaped UFO’s. Sixty Minutes dos does a story on UFO’s, CNN picks up the ball and interviews CGI experts about the plausibility of creating special effect fake UFO videos…
Someone digs up an heretofore unpublished Arthur C. Clarke SciFi short story that states that UFO’s will appear to the people on earth on the date that the first UFO Youtube was uploaded.
President Obama is interviewed and states that he has always been a fan of Arthur C. Clarke.
A Nasa spokesman confirms that there were in fact no NASA objects flying in the skies.
The number one trending topic on Twitter is #aliensarrive
Your argument would indicate that the following is a truism:
There is empirical evidence that UFO’s exist.
I would argue that unless I can see a UFO or someone that I respect confirms that they have seen a UFO, UFO sightings are annecdotal.
Therefore the word empirical depends on the trust value that is associated with the presenter of the empirical data.
My article was in fact designed to show that sometimes, when someone you trust, [in this instance a well respected Economist and College Professor] misrepresents data
Empirical becomes annecdotal.
So Nick, what say you now, is there in fact a differentiation between Empirical and annecdotal ?