The Art of DoubleThink (1984) – is not Restricted to Fantasy SCi-FI Novels.

Hot:

Unh… but what did he mean???

Governments and lobbyists are experts at the George Orwell Doublethink game to use words to paint individuals, organisations and entire countries with psychologically designed negative meaning.

For example, on the occasion of my being banned as a Director by ASIC, Mr Vladimer Malinaric (not his real name – in Australia, ASIC investigators use fake names, so in reality, one never actually knows who his/her judge is), Delegate of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission said about me:

Doublethink TAKE 1

81. Whilst the absence of gross incompetence, lack of appreciation of commercial morality, a cynical disregard of the trading advantages of limited liability, dishonesty, lack of scruples, untrustworthiness or irresponsibility does not necessarily mean that a disqualification order should not be made, the presence orabsence of such matters is relevant to the exercise of discretion.

Isn’t that a great paragraph.

Let’s break it down slightly differently…..

He said:

Doublethink TAKE 2

Para 81.

Whilst the absence of

  • gross incompetence,
  • lack of appreciation of commercial morality,
  • a cynical disregard of the trading advantages of limited liability,
  • dishonesty,
  • lack of scruples,
  • untrustworthiness or irresponsibility

does not necessarily mean that a disqualification order should not be made,

the presence or absence of such matters is relevant to the exercise of discretion

In other words, even if the guy isn’t a crook, we have the discretion to make him one.

Unfortunately, it is my considered opinion that M. Geoffron has used the language of double speak throughout the Tera Report to present data and conclusions that are based on false premise.

For example,

BSA currently categorises all illegally downloaded software as a lost sale.

They calculate their numbers by receiving sale reports from within a country, city or region from software companies.

They then conduct phone call polls with company’s to see what software they have installed on their computers in the last 12 months, six months, three months and compare that to the sales reports. The difference represents the Piracy factor.

This is quite clearly incorrect in my opinion, for the following reasons;

1.                   Some downloads would be classified as the educational curiosity factor.

2.                   Some downloads would peer recommended meme compulsions.

3.                   Some downloads would be as a result of the lack of money and forced due to peer pressure to conform.

4.                   Some downloads would be for purely convenience reasons – (e.g.: residency in a country or region where this software/digital content is not available via legal means. (e.g.: The Beatles demonstrating a 39% higher predilection of availability on the ED2K networks (eMule/eDonkey//Kademlia) because they are not available on Amazon MP3 Digital downloads. (Koltai March 2010) .

..and as we discussed, I differentiate between start-up mode file sharing for new product releases (public relations cost) and establishment mode file sharing, which I consider (copyright theft) .

However the two are currently lumped together by everyone in one basket along with commercial scale copying operations.

My biggest concern is the lack of differentiation between commercial and Games software file sharing.

For example, in the following table representing the 20 largest Software companies in the world, 7% of total software turnover is attributable to games.

If we remove the service component of the top 20 (i.e.: those companies that make the majority of money from providing services, we lose another 35.9% of total revenues for a net Software percentage of only 57%.

Of that total, by my calculation, we are only left with 16.9% of the total revenues that could be affected by file sharing.

This is a far cry from the figures bandied about in varying file sharing reports.

Of course, in that 16.9% we have Microsoft, which according to my research, even taking into effect their regionalisation lock-in for different versions of the operating system, is undoubtedly the most copied software in the world. By my calculation, according to announcements of Windows release for mobile phones, and the number of mobile phones in the world, it would appear that Windows mobile is the most pirated/copied software in the world.

However, I digress, the following table provides a high level glimpse of some of my investigations;

Company Software Revenues (M)US$ Software revenue growth (%yoy) Total Revenues (M)US$ Software Revenue share File Sharing Likelihood (Koltai) Likely at 100% Unlikely at 100% Likely BSA at 20%
Microsoft 49,453 10% 61,900 80% Likely 49,453 9890.6
IBM 22,089 11% 103,630 21% Unlikely 22,089
Oracle 17,560 17% 22,102 79% Unlikely 17,560
HP 11,604 8% 16,111 72% Unlikely 11,604
Symantec 5,692 8% 6,152 93% Likely 5,692 1138.4
Activision Blizzard 4,622 73% 5,032 92% Likely 4,622 924.4
Lockheed Martin 4,186 6% 42,731 10% Unlikely 4,186
Electronic Arts 4,268 29% 4,268 100% Likely 4,268 853.6
CA 3,936 4% 4,305 91% Unlikely 3,936
Adobe 3,361 10% 3,544 95% Unlikely§ 3,361
EMC 3,171 3% 14,876 21% Unlikely 3,171
SunGard 2,015 17% 5,596 36% Unlikely 2,015
Cisco 1,984 14% 39,455 5% Unlikely 1,984
Autodesk 1,982 1% 2,303 86% Likely 1,982 396.4
BMC 1,585 2% 1,698 93% Unlikely 1,585
Take-Two Interactive 1,452 48% 1,452 100% Likely 1,452 290.4
NCR 1,431 6% 5,315 27% Unlikely 1,431
Intuit 1,383 -3% 2,800 49% Likely 1,383 276.6
Synopsys 1,200 11% 1,341 89% Unlikely 1,200
Citrix 1,180 11% 1,583 75% Unlikely 1,180
Totals 144,154 346,194 68852 75302 13770.4
Real 10% 4% 13770.4
Likely 48% 20% 68,852
Unlikely 52% 22% 75302

§ Adobe has been marked unlikely due to the support, utilities and proprietary server lookups that have secured this publisher from most attempts at file sharing it’s software successfully. Additionally, Adobe offer generous trial versions that can be extended.

I spoke to one of BSA’s Senior executives and aired my concerns with him.

It would appear that from our discussions, that your formula does not make allowance for digital purchases inter-region via Amazon, eBay and other Digital software distributors.

We discussed a growing tendency for consumers to disregard national borders when shopping on the internet driven by pricing alone. Example number 1. Corel Draw full version on eBay.

Both vendors offer free postage yet one (the USA offering is $96.00 cheaper).

(in our conversation you suggested that this was no longer the case.)

Example 2.

Game vendors no longer restrict themselves to sales by country region alone:

http://www.battlefieldbadcompany2.com/en-gb/buynow

I can purchase from any country with no restriction (except the cost of Freight, but vendors like this are reaping the benefits of their international open sales policies with Battlefield Bad Company number one on the Games list last month in the UK..

Rank Platform Games Hot List March 2010 Individual Format Top Ten UK Sales Market Penetration ED2K
1 360 Battlefield Bad Company 2 202,000 NEW 533
2 WII Just Dance 190,000 746,000-790,000 12
3 PS3 Final Fantasy XIII 125,000 NEW 0
4 PS3 Battlefield Bad Company 2 122,000 NEW 0
5 360 Final Fantasy XIII 110,000 NEW 8
6 PS3 God of War III 94,000 NEW 19
7 WII Wii Fit Plus 93,000 1,142,000 25
8 PS3 Heavy Rain 86,000 172,000 0
9 WII Wii Sports Resort 84,000 1,587,000 83
10 NDS Pokemon Soulsilver 79,000 NEW 175

After my discussion with the BSA senior executive, I sent him much of the above data for his consideration. He notified me a few days later that he had received my comments and would be looking into it.

I have not heard back from the gentleman in question advising me that they had altered their counting method to allow for cross border and digital software purchases.

Unfortunately last week the BSA piracy report came out and no mention was made of the possibility of errors in the finding, nor was there anty change in the way they counted their data.

For BSA each lost (bricks and mortar locally estalished software vendor) sale was still a direct result of Piracy, even thought their collection methodology was outdated by at least the age of eBay’s and Amazon’s first cross border software sale.

Patrice Geoffron based his entire loss calculations based on the provably incorrect BSA numbers. Admittedly he (M. Geoffron) discounted the one for one by 50% to be two pirated copies equaled on lost sale, however unfortunately by our calculations as evident form above that number is still about 93% too high.

Conclusion, I am concerned that when persons like Geoffron P., economist consultant to BASCAP issue reports like the Terra Report last month designed to convince politicians to vote for the Three Strikes legislation, based on incorrect assumptions and data, (based almost entirely on BSA numbers) then policy makers have no choice but to accept their findings.

Even when those findings are at least based on data that is provably 93% wrong

Reason Number 5 why Music Sales might be/are down Let’s Talk about Second hand Games.

Hot:

The other day we hinted about the importance of Computer Games to the new economy.

Patrice Geoffron in his report to BASCAP, destined for the heads of Governments throughout Europe, unfortunately omitted to include the value of the video games industry in his report, even though in the most recent IFPI report, Mr. Kennedy, the Chairman of IFPI recognised that Games had overtaken music as the number one selling media commodity.

Source 1 IFPI 2010 Digital Music Report

Today, we are not going to analyse the discretionary household expenditure portion of the 267 million or so games that have been sold (yearly/aggregated)  in the EU since 1998.

Clicking in the above will download a copy of the source excel file

Or the 60 million kilos of games missing from the PRA 36500 datasets.

At 130 grams per game, (DVD, case and booklet) we make that 461,538,461 computer games that were shipped but never manufactured.) Yeah right!

Must have been pirated games that were sold. (I’ve heard of commercial in confidence but quite frankly this is ridiculous…… I don’t see any valid reason why the numbers can’t be supplied ten years after the event…. surely the competition wouldn’t learn anything valuable ten years later……)

But let’s not discuss that yet….

Nor will we dwell on the growing sales of computer consoles designed exclusively for gaming.

Or why console sales in the UK appear to be falling in comparison to the market growth in the US. (Because of course, everyone knows, you can’t pirate a consol… it’s hardware.)

Nor will we spend any time discussing the apparent huge boost in revenues to the games industry, companies like Sony, Microsoft,
Nintendo, on the occasion of the launches of the DS, Wii, XBox360 and of course the PS-3 and how those billions of dollars curiously resemble the drop in the music numbers.

No, we’re not going to talk about all that. Everyone already knows all that, except perhaps M. Patrice Geoffron (who doesn’t believe that companies like Microsoft and Vivendi and their publishing products, should be included in his report on job loss in the EU).

Today, we will travel geographically southwards to the forgotten continent. The antipodes, or for persons not located in between the UK and the Netherlands, Australia; and backwards in the fourth dimension to 1979.

We do this to find a set of statistics that are (mainly) isolated from possible cross border purchase/sale statistical contamination principally through Australia’s distance and subsequent shipping costs.

With a population of approximately twenty-two point six million people; Australia quite often technologically benefits in it’s physical remoteness and small population base by being selected as the test bed for new technologies, (cellphones in the early eighties) and occasionally we are not (lack of micro computers in the late seventies). In fact, we were the last ones to get a Radio Shack in the 70’s.

What did happen is that when Radio shack did finally open in Oz, Dick Smith (a competitor) opened shop
simultaneously and with the ensuing competition, it appeared that everyone could afford to buy an Atari, a TRS-80, a Pet Commodore, an IBM clone or an Sinclair ZX.

Australia went computer mad. (Although with TIME magazine voting the IBM 5129 the Man of the year…, possibly it was the whole world that went comuter mad.)

“Music? Don’t bother me woman, and turn down Tina Turner. I’m writing a program to classify all your recipes.”

The eighties were amazing. We went from a nation with one computer per eleven thousand people to one computer
per ten households in less than ten years.

In 1983 at the Koltai residence, in the distant countrified remote city of Darwin (near Kakadu), we had a
Ferranti, an Olivetti, an ATT&T 3B2 a DRS300 an NEC HO2 and my favourite, the Phantom Chess Challenger (which was a chess game with XY self moving chess pieces and not technically a computer – with keyboard, but it used to beep, and it’s a game, so it’s included.)

Each computer had a variety of games installed, depending on the computers capabilities and operating system.

The NEC had an advanced Noughts and Crosses, the The 3B2 used to dial-up Minerva and we would play Zork online (at the blindingly fast speed of 150 bps…..), before Infocom released Zork for IBM at the bargain basement price of only $79.95.

As Australian households warmed to their new technical toys (that kept the kids busy for hours – unlike music
that wouldn’t keep them out of mum’s hair for more then ten seconds…..) software consumers overnight, became wannabe game programmers.

SIMTEL20, the White Sands facility that was volunteered for civil use by the US government in 1979
suddenly became a repository for thousands of Amiga, IBM and Apple users.

Each of these users purchased a modem and called their local BBS; which of course in Darwin, was “moi”. My entire
role in life in those days was to get the best software so that my users could “play”.

Definition of the best software?  Sure, anything that was public domain that was a utility or game that had source code.

The public had computers and they wanted to learn how to emulate Bill Gates; and each one purchased sound cards,
more memory, a Borland compiler or two, advanced 640×480 graphics cards, larger monitors, modems and for the kids… ahem ahem, some games.0

Exit the past, arrive back in the present, Saturday Afternoon, the 1st of May 2010.

On eBay in Australia there appears to be between fifty to sixty thousand second hand Video games available for sale on a rotating basis with each listing taking between seven and ten days to finalise. (Finalise does not necessarily mean a sale. Listings can expire with no bids thereon.) That produces a turnover of around 6295.8 games per day.

Ebay Category Games

Rank

Platform

On Offer

1

PC

12,047

2

PlayStation 2

9,120

3

PlayStation 3

7415

4

Xbox360

6,725

5

Nintendo DS

5,956

6

Wii

5,706

7

Xbox

2,423

8

PlayStation

2,351

9

PlayStation Portable

2,131

10

Nintendo 64

1,412

11

Mega Drive

1,168

12

SNES

1,149

13

Game Boy Advance

927

14

GameCube

914

15

NES

809

16

Game Boy

701

17

Master System

673

18

Atari

332

19

Game Boy Colour

297

20

Saturn

195

21

Apple

130

22

Dreamcast

120

23

Not Specified

91

24

Game Gear

88

25

Commodore

59

26

Mega CD

12

27

Intellivision

6

28

Colecovision

1



Saturday 1/May/10

62,958

To calculate the average value, we traveled to the other side of the world to a popular games pricing site, http://videogamepricecharts.com used by secondhand retailers globally as a price indicator.

(Whose principal audience according to Alexa is :Based on internet averages, videogamepricecharts.com is visited more frequently by males who are in the age range 18-24, have no children, are college educated and browse this site from school).

Game System

Total Vendors

Avge Price

Total Games

Avail Second Hand

Atari 2600

774

58.97

539

414

Atari Lynx

102

15.23

84

63

Gameboy Advance

3846

8.19

1088

1064

Gameboy Color

3192

5.44

960

941

Gamecube

2288

8.39

646

605

Mac Games

292

24.23

147

132

Neo Geo

62

190.74

55

45

NES

2863

63.70

814

802

Nintendo 64

1237

8.97

338

338

Nintendo DS

3860

14.05

1231

1205

PC Games

926

28.68

406

378

Playstation

4972

7.46

1309

1308

Playstation 2

7030

7.39

1921

1908

Playstation 3

1322

27.49

457

456

Sega Dreamcast

992

10.92

300

280

Sega Genesis

2609

8.64

713

706

Super Nintendo

2779

24.59

727

726

Wii

2440

17.73

779

770

Xbox

3564

5.37

1002

938

Xbox 360

2254

19.52

679

673

3DO

340

16.15

172

156

Atari 5200

104

21.40

85

63

Atari 7800

98

11.51

85

45

Colecovision

194

17.07

120

108

Commodore 64

352

22.09

581

274

Intellivision

221

14.61

113

111

Jaguar

87

20.95

69

50

PSP

1520

11.72

542

524

SegaGear

545

5.88

303

232

Sega CD

414

11.52

160

143

SegaSystem

391

12.87

318

180

Sega Saturn

719

16.58

260

253

TurboGrafx-16

260

27.97

118

115

Virtual Boy

40

76.45

17

16

52689

$ 24.78

17138

16022

Where we discovered that the average price for a second hand computer game from N=844,183,158 (avail second hand games times total vendors) was $24.78 (USD),

If we accept the premise that 54.8%[i] of eBay listed items conclude successfully in an average of 7 days, and; eBay in Australia has 3.2 million registered users;

then the Australian eBay market in used computer only computer games totals $ 33,493,301.51[ii] per annum or $ 10.47 per eBay user. ($1.52 per capita).

If we allow for a similar interest by non eBay users (at a rate determined to be 69% of the total Australian population with a PC at home) and we attribute the satiation of their interest via more traditional low cost reselling venues, i.e.: flea markets, garage sales, classifieds, local notice-boards, friends and pawn shops, then suddenly, we get to $ 49.65 for every household in Australia, with a computer, per annum.

If we add that to Australia’s wholesale music purchases per household…

Remember, this is for the entire household, and not per capita.[iii]

2002

2003

2004

2005 ^

2006

2007

2008

2009

Music Wholesale $ (AUD)

609,534,000

646,002,000

606,970,000

520,267,000

483,915,000

422,247,000

371,448,000

366,868,000

AU Households

7,505,674

7,645,366

7,783,687

7,920,842

8,058,248

8,186,752

8,315,589

8,444,779

Per Household

$ 81.21

$ 84.50

$ 77.98

$ 65.68

$ 60.05

$ 51.58

$ 44.67

$ 43.44

As Mr. Spock would say….                     “Fascinating”.

The argument is of course slightly flawed because we must allow for;

  • not everyone with a computer wants to buy second hand games, and;
  • most persons with a computer and inclined to play games are no doubt aware of the cost benefits of
    purchasing via eBay and would therefore lost likely do their shopping online.

However, it does make for an interesting thesis and as my regular readers know…. It’s at least as credible as the Music Industry claims that piracy has damaged their revenue model.

In closing to give you a little more thinking music…  (Leonard Cohen “Everybody knows”)

Let us return to that N number….. 844,183,158 second hand games for sale, globally.

The company states that they obtain their pricing from several sources:

The prices shown in the table above are the average price for each game over the last 90 days on eBay.com,
Amazon.com, Half.com, and JJGames.com. The prices are updated daily. The price is what an
individual would receive for buying or selling a used copy of the game.

We decided to use the same numbers as we used from eBay Australia, above.

i.e.: 54.8% of all games sell within seven days, however, we thought we would make it 30 days on a global basis, in honour of the recession.

The total? $10,130,197,896 for second hand games ONLY. No consoles, no attachments. Just pre-loved, aging
computer games.

That’s a global per capita of around $1.40.

Makes one think about those claims of computer piracy being the reason for the drop in sales numbers for the music guys…….

The new games and new software that’s been sold in the EU since 2000?

That’s a story for another day.. and what a story!


[i] Confidential Source

[ii] At USD>AU exchange rate 0.931637 · 1.07338

[iii] We consider that with the millenials tending to live at home until about age twenty-five, we should count per household.

References:

PRA 36500 Games & Toys 2007

31010DO001_200909 Australian Demographic Statistics, Sep 2009 -ABS

Resources:

Everybody Knows (Cohen, Leonard;Robinson, S)

Everybody knows that the dice are loaded
Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed
Everybody knows that the war is over
Everybody knows the good guys lost
Everybody knows the fight was fixed
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich
That’s how it goes
Everybody knows


File Sharing Education Patrice Geoffron and the Global IQ

Hot:

This article starts out somewhat sardonically (which is appropriate as regards the charges levied against the global online community), but becomes a little more serious as it develops.

News flash……

We have discovered a major omission in the Tera Report and will attempt over the next few weeks to correct this injustice

It would appear that M. Patrice Geoffron, omitted some major sections from the Tera report thereby understating the true value of damage to the music industry by Piracy.

Specifically in his selection of Consumer Durables in NACE 1.1

To overcome this deficiency we have been scouring the NACE categories for days to identify other items that should be included in his report.

We have identified an interim list that we urgently wish to bring to the worlds attention.

Internet Piracy would also appear to have affected the following Manufacturing industry’s:

  • Sales of Gramaphone players, mechanical, self powered, wind-up, portable.
  • Sales of Gramaphone Cylinders, wax,
  • Sales of Phonograph Players, mechanical, self-powered, wind-up, (home)
  • Sales of Phonograph players, mechanical, coin operated, wind-up, non portable.
  • Sales of Phonograph players, electro-mechanical, coin operated, non-portable.
  • Sales of recorded music, 78 rpm, 12” shellac,
  • Sales of Pianolla Rolls, paper, printed, with patterns
  • Sales of Pianolla Rolls, Linen, printed
  • Sales of Pianolla players, style upright, formal
  • Sales of Pianolla players, wooden, style, Grand Salon, formal
  • Sales of Pianolla players, wooden, electro-mechanical, style bar or saloon
  • Sales of Calliopes, steam powered, horse drawn
  • Sales of Organs, church, pedal powered, bellows, wooden

We note that M. Geoffron has already included Jukeboxes, coin operated, non-portable.

And;

  • Cassette tape player Decks (home)
  • Sales of Cassette Tape Player (portable)

However, additionally we have identified….

Sales of Record Players (portable)

  • Sales of Home Stereo units (non-portable), inc. Radio, valve [non-transistorized].
  • Sales of Home stereo units, portable, transistorized, mono [AM only radio]

We have discovered that all of the above business have also been affected by advances in technology and have lost considerable sales, no doubt due to piracy….

Pardon? M. Geoffron said what?

He said that Newspapers and ? Music sales were affected by piracy on the internet.

Did he say how newspapers were affected by these horrible Somalian marauders?

Non?

Well what about the music sales then? Did he compare the sales of individual music tracks with it’s chart position and then track the weekly sales in the shops?

Non?

Pardon?

Only one person in the world has done that research?

You mean besides me……

Oh, you are talking about me.

Good, I though someone else had measured the effects of a whole country downloading the most popular songs and measured every download comparing the sales against the download progress.

We developed a whole methodology you know… we called it the P2Pscore method.

Yes, I know. You kept telling me how wonderful it was.

The Hedonic Value of P2P to our Economy.”

(Koltai June 2009 – updated Apr 2010) we said;

We will be anecdotally commencing an examination of the apparently growing causational relationship between higher education and file sharing (and no, we are not referring to the music industries suggestion that universities/colleges are a hot bed of invisible i2p file sharers).

If the content industry is to be believed, their business model has been devastated by young college students wanting to get their entertainment for free.

Therefore we can make some assumptions from this claim.

File sharing exists to rip off the Music Industry,

Ergo, the most popular files will no doubt be the Music Industries most cherished jewels. The Top 40, an artificially developed promotional aid to assist in the sales of music tracks and development of artists

Enabling some conclusions to be drawn, amongst which would appear to be the fact that:

If the most popular files on the file sharing networks are not the Jewels of the Music Industry, then they have been misrepresenting the facts and their pleas for legislative protection and judicial relief need to be ignored and current legislative enactments need to be reviewed and rescinded if appropriate; e.g.: The three Strikes/Hadopi/ACTA..

On that basis we started looking at the most likely downloaded music content, the Australian Top 50 published by ARIA.

We collected Data on a non-indexing Lugundum server for 26 weeks from February to September, 2009.

We compared the data searches to the ARIA music charts week by week, with particular care and attention to the happenings in June, (the commencement of the Australian winter) and this year, the loss of Michael Jackson, which turned the traditional charting world on it’s head.

As with any charting system, there are risers and fallers. The current Aria Top 50 Number #1 song is Boom Boom Pow by Black Eyed Peas. It would appear to be (as far as the P2P community concerned), a faller. Whereas, the week before, Knock You Down the ARIA # 49 had a P2PScore of 298,000 placing it at number 14 followed up this week moving to slot number 6 and would appear to be a riser.

ARIA Top 40 Digital

ARIA Top 50 Physical CD

The Koltai Comparative

P2P Top 10

P2P

AU IP Req

TW

LW

TW

LW

WK-1

#

P/Hr

29

16

31

HUSH HUSH; HUSH HUSH

1

390

3.406114

4

4

5

4

BREAKEVEN

2

291

2.541485

36

28

39

33

MY DELIRIUM

3

273

2.384279

3

2

4

3

JAI HO! (YOU ARE MY DESTINY)

4

256

2.235808

18

22

22

27

WHEN LOVE TAKES OVER

5

242

2.113537

38

New

37

49

KNOCK YOU DOWN

6

221

1.930131

12

10

17

10

NEW DIVIDE

7

194

1.694323

8

9

8

9

THE CLIMB

8

193

1.68559

39

26

35

26

KNOW YOUR ENEMY

9

192

1.676856

1

1

1

1

BOOM BOOM POW

10

185

1.615721

P2P interest in Boom Boom Pow when it reached the top of the Aria charts last year was flat with a slight drop (sample period 48 hours).

Whereas the eMule community in Australia valued Knock You Down at thirty chart points ahead of ARIA sales.

Our method for determining the popularity of the Australian Top 50 includes a factor based on the number of requests for a particular track by a certain artist from Australian IP numbers on the ED2K network.

We have devised a methodology for eliminating the thousands of industry generated fake and empty files from our data (inserted by the music industry to make obtaining the content harder for illegal file sharers and also a lot harder for anyone to measure the real metrics of file sharing.)

And we have some stats… according to an auto port (PC service ports) poll [see references] of 1.6 million users conducted in 2007 that demonstrated that 0.04% of the world uses emule on the eDonkey network. And the number of Emule users are estimated at between 3 (Peerates) and 27 (IPFI) million.

For conservative purposes, we prefer to use the Peerates number, 3 million.

The number of connected users per peer vary between 0 to several hundred – lets say average connected hosts per peer = a conservative 100.

Each host can effectively manage an average of about 31 file requests per hour. (This number is relevant to several factors, including the number of files a user shares on his/her hard disk, the distance between peers (number of hops) and the popularity of the individual files.)

So – number of Emule file requests (not actual downloads) to peers that have advertised the availability of a non-fake version of the file available for downloading.

Therefore, Global Emule Users times Connected Peers times Connected hours times Requests per Hour times percentage of peers within less than 4 hops distance. (Hops artificially deliberately restricted by BGP table)

GU  *  CP *DH * HR *PH = 3,000,000 * 100 *24 * 31 *78%

Total  174,096,000,000 file requests per 24 hours.

If that represents 0.04% of the worlds file sharing base (as per the 1.6 million sample taken) then we have a pretty definitive quantum.

Unfortunately very few people are examining the Hedonic value to the economy of the users downloading software programs, ebooks and entertainment.

P2P networks according to our research are downloading an awful lot of educational material right along with the entertainment portion.

For example users downloading educational material like Microsoft Office Excel – Hungry Minds – Excel Programming (2002).pdf by a factor of .4 requests per hour more than the number one listed hit song in Australia.

These numbers would suggest that P2P users are more interested in educating themselves than entertaining themselves.

If our statistical analysis continues to confirm this proof it would appear that as well as P2P killing the Porn Star, it’s users are now more interested in bettering  themselves educationally than ensuring the availability of the latest rap aural transgression assault on their eardrums.

To refresh your memories, in that article we said:

“According to Ipoque, 22% of Internet users generate 76% of all internet traffic via Bit Torrent or emule  downloading 38% movies, 25% Games 14% TV shows 9% music and only 1% porn”.

The music statistic was made up of 7.12% audio only files and 2.52% of music videos.

However the conclusion was that Pornography appeared to be gradually displaced by other areas of interest by consumers, the majority of whom appeared to satisfy their curiosity within a few months and move onto more relevant and interesting content.

The quantum of value per downloaded educational item of content is subjective to the individual.

Nevertheless, the mere fact that users are electing educational materials in higher frequency growth patterns than entertainment material (note the exponential curve), is significant and we feel it therefore relevant to conclude anecdotally that this would appear to be a trend.

We haven’t quite worked out how to determine the age of the persons requesting Autocad or Crystal Reports or the entire Hungry Mind series. However, if as I believe, the ages of the requesters of those files is getting younger, then some additional conclusions can be drawn and appropriate alterations need to be considered for the way industry and Government interacts with our younger users;

  • Reclassification of Material as Educational Promotional Give away marketing.
  • IFS via P2P appears to be filling a gap not currently provided by Universities or High Schools
  • A better educated population resulting in a higher GDP and higher lifestyle aspirations

As a 13 year old can have absolutely no use for Autocad apart from the educational value, the “loss” suffered by Software companies and as reported by IDC (summary findings here) needs to be revisited and revised downwards – however, those companies should be able to claim the downloads as a promotional cost on their taxation returns..

The Hedonic value? Considerable.  The methodology for calculating that value and adding it to the national GDP of Australia ? We’re working on it.

But some initial subject matter worthy in our opinion of further consideration and research would be:

  1. Socio-economic values including:
    1. Value to trade of international language assimilation through the distribution of popular multi-media content.
    2. Sociological value of distribution of country specific cultural content
    3. Global Trust quotient developing as a result of 1 & 2.
  2. The value to commerce of having technologically more capable employees familiar and capable of utilizing a wider range of software environments.
  3. The value to Government of having a citizenry with a higher level of education fostered by open access to information.
  4. The loss potential to nations that do not allow their younger generations to utilize all possible means to learn.
  5. The future trading loss when nations that do not restrict their Internet users, have a smarter abnd better educated population base.

Back To the Music

Let us not forget that the whole file sharing hoo haa was started by Napster and it was the music industry that decided to latch onto file sharing as the reason for its failing revenues.

We think it would be ironic if the device (The Top 40 List) that “made” the music industry successful during their build-up years was the unraveling of their aspirations a half century later. Not because there is anything wrong with the Top 40, with the exception being, the Industries Top 40 does not apparently equal the users Top 40.

This was confirmed for us recently in a comparison of number one hits versus music sales.

The music purchasers were diverting from sticking to number one purchases.

In Australia last year a local TV station aired an AC/DC special. The P2P networks responded to the call to action and search requests for AC/DC’s hit Thunderstruck outperformed the entire Australian Top 50 by a factor of 62%.

In other words, Thunderstruck was searched for almost as much as the entire collection of Aussie Top 50.

But of course, this news would delight the band, because it is a strong indication of ticket sales for their (at that time) up-coming Australian concert tour.

However, this started me thinking, what else could be more popular than the Australian Top 50?

We were surprised ….

Peer Gynt’s Prelude to Act II composed in 1875 beat out all but two of Australia’s top 50.

Now it’s a nice piece of music, but not quite as well known as Opus 46 (In the Hall of the Mountain King).

In conclusion, our finding is that the world isn’t all that interested in what the music industry are pushing and as to the accusation that file sharing is the reason for their financial losses…..

we respond briefly; bullshit! When Australians, (determined by IP numbers) choose a 233 year old piece of music over the current Top 50…. There has to be something wrong with the Top 50.

We concluded this article with a brief light-hearted look at…

An anecdotal analysis of the value of P2P to the Australian Economy

Population (AU):

22,000,000

Notes

Per Unit

% pr/yr

Number of

Total $

Infrastructure

A

98,000,000,000

0.21%

98,000,000,000

20,580,000,000

Maintenance

B

209,860,000

1

209,860,000

209,860,000

Wages/Paye

C

5,000,000,000

1

5,000,000,000

5,000,000,000

Computer

D

1,000.00

33%

11000000

3,630,000,000

Laptop

E

1,500.00

66%

4400000

4,356,000,000

Router

F

69.00

33%

3300000

75,141,000

Wifi

G

180.00

33%

3300000

196,020,000

Sat Dish

H

420.00

33%

110000

15,246,000

Modem

I

90.00

20%

11880000

213,840,000

Cellphone

J

550.00

66%

22,000,000

7,986,000,000

Retail Use Plan Home

K

39.95

100%

5,500,000

2,636,700,000

Retail Phone Data Use

L

18.00

24%

9680000

501,811,200

Wholesale Billing

M

12.00

100%

5,500,000

792,000,000

45,400,618,200

GST

(GST not calculated on “A” and “B”)

2,061,261,820

Total Value of P2P

(At 80% of Network and CPE value)

$37,969,504,016

(This table does not make allowance the surge in the acquisition of small home media centres and terabyte hard disks. )

Hard disks

Year

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

$

220

185

330

360

195

440

Size

80

160

320

500

1000

2000

$ p/GB

2.75

1.15625

1.03125

0.72

0.195

0.22

Home media centres are now under $150 each on eBay and 1 TB hard disks are similarly priced. Therefore a $300 (AUD) investment allows for the storage of approximately 1500 ninety minute movies.)

In other words, in Australia P2P is worth more than the entire combined revenue base of the member companies of the various industry bodies trying to stop P2P. (i.e.: EMI, Warner, MGM, Sony)

Now if we to multiple those figures by the population of the rest of the world and you have an industry globally that adds up to $10,355,319,277,091

That means that technology that started because of the ubiquity of content has now outstripped the value of that content, and replaced it with something far more valuable.

Basically, taxable revenue – yes I did say TAXABLE, dollars that your government obtains revenue from – unlike Movies and Music and overseas made TV shows.

Notes:

Assumptions.

  1. The cost of the telecommunications infrastructure in Australia is “A”
  2. The cost of maintaining that infrastructure is “B”
  3. That infrastructure generates “C” in wages, PAYE tax and individual taxation.
  4. To utilize that infrastructure you require termination CPE (Customer Premises Equipment).
  5. CPE includes, Telephone handsets, Modems (dial-up/ADSL), Nat routers, satellite dishes, WiFi devices. Items “F” through “I”
  6. If fifty percent of Australians have a computer – let’s call that “D”
  7. Most computers are cycled every thirty six months. Therefore Annual replacement of “D” is valued at $330.00 on the basis that the purchase price is $1000.00
  8. We assume 20% of Australians have a laptop. “E”
  9. If 100% percent of Australians have a mobile Phone – let’s call that “J”
  10. If 5.5 million homes of 7.2 million are connected to the internet, that generates a monthly subscriber value of “F” (For this exercise, we assume a monthly total of $39.95 per sub.)  “K”
  11. 44% of Mobile Phones have data plans and approximately 24% of those phones utilize their internet connection.
  12. The average mobile phone data consumption is therefore worth approx. $18.00 per month. “L”
  13. All services are billed between the wholesale carrier and the retail Service Provider. “M”

In Conclusion

If the additional value of the Hedonic benefits of P2P networking are added to the equation,

Vis:

Easy to obtain multi-media content (i.e.: Grandma can now do it)

No limits on access to Data, both Governmental and Academic

Less resources utilized on international bandwidth segments due to localized file sharing networks – thereby increasing the user experience for other non p2p file sharing users

Rapid referencing of materials not readily available elsewhere.

Then the value per person [Per Capita] in Australia on a national basis increases from $1,300 PP to an estimated $4,200 PP, man woman and child.

That now equals 10% of the GDP.

P2P appears to be providing unexpected benefits.

However I should make it clear that these numbers are based on anecdotal estimates and require additional research (but we thought we would publish anyway as these days, empirical data does not seem to be required before Governments accept the findings of paid for reports from self serving individuals.)

References:

A Measurement Study of Peer-to-Peer File Sharing Systems Stefan Saroiu, P. Krishna Gummadi, Steven D. Gribble

Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195-2350

A Survey of Anonymous Peer-to-Peer File-Sharing

Tom Chothia and Konstantinos Chatzikokolakis

Laboratoire d’Informatique, ´Ecole Polytechnique, 91128 Palaiseau Cedex, France

{tomc,kostas}@lix.polytechnique.fr

OECD INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY OUTLOOK 2004

PEER TO PEER NETWORKS IN OECD COUNTRIES

Ethical Issues in the Music Industry

Response to Innovation and Piracy Robert F. Easley

Journal of Business Ethics (2005) 62: 163–168

Content Availability, Pollution and Poisoning in File Sharing Peer toPeer Networks

Nicolas Christin Andreas S. Weigend John Chuang

S.I.M.S., UC Berkeley

Development of peer-to-peer (P2P) internet online hybrid test system

Peng Pan1; Hiroshi Tomofuji; Tao Wang, Masayoshi Nakashima Makoto Ohsaki1; and Khalid M. Mosalam;

GEEKS BEARING GIFTS OPEN SOURCE SOFTWARE AND ITS ENEMIES

Nicholas Gruen

POLICY • Vol. 21 No. 2 • Winter 2005

Privacy & Piracy: The Paradox of Illegal File Sharing on Peer-to-Peer Networks and the Impact

of Technology on the Entertainment Industry” [2003]

Written Statement of Professor Doris Estelle Long Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs

THE BITTORRENT P2P FILE-SHARING SYSTEM: MEASUREMENTS AND ANALYSIS

J.A. Pouwelse, P. Garbacki, D.H.J. Epema, H.J. Sips

Department of Computer Science, Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands

In 2007, Paul Reskinoff, from Digital Music News in conjunction with Big Champagne, started collecting statistics about file sharing clients installed on individual computers. Over a period of a year, they extracted data from 1,661,688 Internet users – the results are amazing….

P2P Client

Sep-06

Jan-07

May-07

Sep-07

Network

Limewire

0.341

0.368

0.355

0.364

Gnutella

uTorrent

0.03

0.046

0.073

0.113

BitTorrent

BitTorrent

0.052

0.053

0.049

0.046

BitTorrent

Ares

0.035

0.038

0.043

0.046

Ares

Azureus

0.06

0.063

0.059

0.043

BitTorrent

eMule

0.038

0.038

0.043

0.04

eDonkey

BitComet

0.049

0.044

0.043

0.039

BiTorrent

BearShare

0.034

0.034

0.032

0.029

Gnutella

BitLord

0.024

0.027

0.028

0.026

BitTorrent

KaZaa

0.045

0.031

0.021

0.015

FastTrack

BitTormado

0.021

0.018

0.016

0.015

BitTorrent

Frostwire

0

0.004

0.01

0.012

Gnutella

Pando

0

0

0.008

0.009

Pando

Total %

73%

76%

78%

80%

Source: http://www.digitalmusicnews.com/report/desktopq407

Over 79% of people have some file sharing software included on their computer.

We extrapolated those figures and discovered that the world will reach P2P ubiquitous file sharing installation by the end of 2011.

The Tera Report Response 5 – 1+1=-6 or How Much can you BUY an Economist for?

Hot:

Introduction.

When I was twelve, I was a regular sporting dude. Rugby, Soccer, Track and Cricket.

My father volunteered his time to be the St Patrick Colleges Football (that’s soccer) Coach, (unfortunately). Yet he drummed into me the absolute necessity of playing the ball and never the man.

In academia, and all non-contact enterprises, a similar modus operandi exists. Everyone is a gentleman. However, when one sees the future of the world coming under the shadow umbrella of politicians that are being advised by mischievous reports that very few would understand or have the inclination to attempt to decode or replicate, then it is time to alter the rules and play the man.

With the current worldwide push to limit individual creativity through the artifact of copyright, I fear that we may be already too late and have effectively ceded our intellectual and creative futures to a handful of corporations that have only their own interests at heart, and care not one iota if an independent songwriter, singer, guitarist or drummer can make a living from their muse.

The Ball is whether file sharing damages manufacturing industries in the EU largest economies to the point that they will loose thousands of jobs.

The Man is Patrice Geoffron.

Who is Patrice Geoffron.

Professeur d’économie à l’Université de Paris-Dauphine.

A respected and leading member of that educated and elite group of people that are used to dealing with and have direct access to the heads of Governments, advising the advisors on policy changes that affect not only our current interaction with technology and the Internet but the well being and future educational prospects of our youngsters.

Therefore the responsibility on the shoulders of learned men like M. Geoffron is at a higher level than plain simple persons like moi.

After all, who am I but a plain peon, chastised and adjudged by ASIC and found wanting.

But then, I don’t advise heads of state.

The recent Hadopi vote in France and the Three Strikes legislation in the UK, have all had the benefit of Professor Geoffron’s input and advice.

For the readers that speak French, the following is worthwhile watching…. If only to ascertain the possibility of bias….

Intervention de Patrice Geoffron – Colloque 16/01/09

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8i0cm_intervention-de-patrice-geoffron-co_news

For those that don’t speak French, it’s basically “the Internet is full of pirates that are stealing all your content and want to read all the content on line for free……..”

So don’t bother watching the video, it’s really a waste of bandwidth.

However, as one comment in relation the video suggested:

“With Martin-Lalande to your left, and Mr. Riester, Rapporteur of Internet Piracy in the audience. Mr. Negro was where? Vivendi, SACEM, SACD from the first image, who are you kidding?”

An excellent question….. Who is he kidding?

Unfortunately, when Patrice talks, Governments, Ministers, Prime Ministers, Kings, Dictators
and Presidents listen.

Patrice Geoffron likes to play with numbers to make +12% look like minus 12%

It’s a good trick, as long as no one sees what you are doing with your other hand.

Table 15 – Recorded music, film and TV consumer/end-user
spending in UK (M€)

CONSUMER / END-USER-SPENDING

GROWTH

Creative Industries

2004

2008

2004-2008

Box office market (Patrice Geoffron)

966

1082

-12%

Actual (Koltai Calculation)

+12%

Chapter 2 / The Impact of Piracy on the Most Affected European Creative Industries – 31

For example, Patrice took a number of out of date statistics and then told his audience, that he would only use the largest
Countries because they were the bulk of the industry and if he extended the data set, the problem would just be bigger…… But let me quote him directly:

This study also differs from earlier research by using a more accurate and comprehensive definition of Europe’s creative industries, one that expands the EU definition of core creative industries and also encompasses the economic contributions of non-core creative industries.
4Building a Digital Economy : The Importance of Saving jobs in the EU’s Creative Industries / Executive Summary

Findings of the Study…In 2008 the European Union’s creative industries, based on the more accurate and comprehensive definition, contributed 6.9%, or approximately €860 billion, to total European GDP, and represented 6.5% of the total workforce, or approximately 14 million workers.

The TERA methodology…Our methodology for defining the creative industries, which draws from KEA’s study and WIPO’s definitions, yields a more accurate assessment of the  true scope of the creative industries in Europe since, for the first time, both core and non-core sectors are taken together to estimate the economic weight of the whole creative ecosystem

Executive Summary / Building a Digital Economy : The Importance of Saving Jobs in the EU’s Creative Industries 5

We have estimated the economic contributions of the creative industries at a national level for the five main European countries (the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Spain), representing threefourths of European GDP contributions. The core creative industries can be assessed with the same methodology as at the European level.

Regarding the non-core creative industries, there is a technical difficulty in determining the weight of the non-core industries on a country level because of gaps in the Eurostat data, which form the basis of the calculation. To overcome this limitation we calculated the “core/non-core” ratio observed at the European level, resulting in the non-core industries representing 54% of the value added of the core creative industries and 70% of the employment of  the core creative industries. We then applied this ratio at a national level.

Given this procedure, these results shall be considered with caution. However, our assumptions remain valid since the objective is to provide orders of magnitude of the weight of creative industries in order to portray the economic ecosystem at risk from widespread piracy.

14 The Contribution of the Creative Industries to the European Economy / Chapter 1

  1. We calculate the weight of the “non-core” industries based on Eurostat data3

3 http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/

Chapter 1 / The Contribution of the Creative Industries to the European Economy 17

..and this was despite the opening statement on the European Commissions Homepage on Statistics says:

Introduction

The usage of Information and Communications Technologies (ICT) has been one of the main drivers of changes within society and businesses since more than a decade. Official statistics are vital in order to monitor these changes.

In 2005, the Commission set out a new strategic framework for the Information Society: i2010 – a European Information Society for growth and employment. It is a key element of the renewed Lisbon Strategy and offers a comprehensive strategy for the ICT and media sector.

The Eurostat information society statistics are key to monitoring its three priorities:

  • The completion of a Single European Information Space
  • Innovation and Investment in ICT research
  • achieving an Inclusive European Information Society

A respective i2010 benchmarking framework was approved by Member States and the Commission in 2006, which set out a comprehensive set of benchmarking indicators on Internet and broadband take up by citizens and businesses, and on the use of computers and online services. It provides for flexible modules on a specific issue to be defined each year.

The collection of Community statistics on the Information society is based on the framework Regulation (EC) no. 808/2004 adopted by the European Parliament and the Council. It ensures harmonised data for all EU Member States and other participating EEA countries until 2010 and contains two modules: one on enterprises and one on households & individuals. As a framework regulation it allows adjustment to newly evolving needs by users and decision makers by annual implementing measures (Commission regulations, see links in Legislation).

Now let us re-examine what Patrice Geoffron considers is the “More Accurate Core Data set.

Table 2 – Sector delineation of the “core” creative industries4

Economic
Activity

Description

NACE

Press and literature

Other publishing

DE2215

Printing and service activities related to printing

DE222

Music, Video, Software

Reproduction of recorded media

DE223

Database

Computer and related activities (software consultancy and
supply, data processing, and database activities and on-line distribution of
electronic conten)

K72

So he threw out all the selections in KEA, WIPO and ended up with DE22 (part) series and K72 series.

What does that give us? When the veil is lifted, what is Patrice Geoffron really betting his reputation on?

According to Eurostat document:Statistics in focus by Author: Pekka ALAJÄÄSKÖ 101/2008 designate4d KS-SF-08-101-EN.pdf

Business services are drivers of the EU-27 knowledge-based economy. Boosted by the European Services Directive2, they face strong outsourcing and export demand, and thrive with the new production possibilities offered by innovations in information and telecommunications technology.  The provision of Business services was the main activity of 3.2 million EU-27 enterprises in 2005, which generated turnover of EUR 1 292 billion.

There were 14.2 million persons employed in providing Business services, accounting for 11.2 % of the non-financial business economy total (NACE C to I and K) and 18.7 % of Services (NACE G, H, I and K). Business services created value added of EUR 665.8 billion, equivalent to 12.4 % of the non-financial business economy and to 22.3 % of Services. Legal, accounting and management services (NACE K74.1) was the largest subsector in Business services, making up 48 % of enterprises, 38 % of value added and 34 % of persons employed.

Okay, he appears to be on target….. (apart from leaving out Video editing, Motion picture and video activities, 3D content creation,
Motion picture and video production, Operation of arts facilities, Radio and television activities, Cinematographic animation, Games Development, special effects, Consumer durables, Information and Communication Technology (including the following NACE codes: 30, 31.3, 32, 33.2, 33.3, 51.43, 51.64, 51.65, 64.2, 72), Operational services (74.5 to 74.7, 74.82, 74.84), and a few other minor
industries worth an approximate 200,000 additional jobs, like delivery of music and VOD to mobile handsets, Telecommunications….) and the least important contribution to the publishing world….. NACE 1.1 Code O9231 – Artistic and literary creation and interpretation. (But who needs artistic interference in the publishing business…….)

We highlighted M. Geoffron’s selected countries.

Patrice generously didn’t want us to bother with the detail for the other countries; he said:

We did not attempt to estimate the economic contributions of the “partial copyright industries” to the economy of the EU member states. If we had included these contributions, the impact of the creative industries on the EU economy would have been greater than the global figures presented here, which represent, for this reason, conservative estimates.

Well, we thought we would extend the dataset to see just how big the problem, really was.

After all, if one is hired to advise heads of state, ministers of the Crown and the entire EU Government, then one shouldn’t take any shortcuts…..

So, by using (the outdated and invalid) NACE 1.1 we discovered that industry was shrinking…..


However we also learnt from Toth last week, that labour regime shopping meant that those jobs were going to neighbouring
states….. Like this.


But of course, M. Geoffron is correct, the pittance of jobs added to the EU 25 is a paltry 200,000 compared to the 1.48 million minus the 150 thousand….. Ooops. There appears to be an illegal growth of jobs.

That can’t be right….

M. Patrice Geoffron assured us that Piracy was decimating the industry…..

That jobs were being destroyed.

He didn’t say that the industry was actually GROWING……..

Here is the data with all the EU states included …..


Oh dear.

It would appear that as well being unable to add up Cinema admissions, M. Geoffron is unable to add up growth.

Because surely, the omission of the EU member states from the report was an oversight. An accident.

We thought we would compare our findings with the official Eurostat viewpoint…..

Statistics in focus Author: Aleksandra STAWIŃSKA 4/2010 KS-SF-10-004-EN.pdf

Publishing, printing and the reproduction of recorded media (NACE Rev. 1.1 Division 22) generated EUR 97 billion of value added in the EU-27 in 2006, representing 1.7 % of the nonfinancial business economy total. However, in employment terms this sector’s contribution was smaller as 219 900 enterprises employed some 1.8 million people, equal to 1.4 % of the nonfinancial business economy’s workforce.

Monsieur (Professor) Geoffron surely would not set out to use a partial data-set to convince the EU Government to vote away our rights
to unfettered and unfiltered and continuous Internet access.

Why would anyone want to do that.

No, Professor Geoffron, must have made an honest mistake.

After all, no-one with such a responsible position would lie to the Government would they?

No-one voluntarily would accept thirty pieces of silver to sell out the Internet access of the next generation of kids, would they?

We will let one of M. Geoffron’s countrymen, Serge Halimi in Le Monde Diplomatique have the last word….

Internet did not destroy journalism, he [journalism] was dying already

In 1934, the French Radical leader Edouard Daladier castigated “two hundred families” who “put the power delegates” and who “spoke on the public, because they control the press.” Three quarters of a century later, fewer than a score of dynasties have a comparable influence, but across the world. The power of these new feudal hereditary – Murdoch, Bollore, Bertelsmann, Lagardere, Slim, Bouygues, Berlusconi, Cisneros, Arnault… – often exceeds that of governments.

En 1934, le dirigeant radical français Edouard Daladier fustigeait les « deux cents familles » qui « placent au pouvoir leurs délégués » et qui « interviennent sur l’opinion publique, car elles contrôlent la presse » Trois quarts de siècle plus tard, moins d’une vingtaine de dynasties exercent une influence comparable, mais à l’échelle de la planète. Le pouvoir de ces nouvelles féodalités héréditaires — Murdoch, Bolloré, Bertelsmann, Lagardère, Slim, Bouygues, Berlusconi, Cisneros, Arnault — excède souvent celui des gouvernements.

And…. a little Graph….. which possibly someone should show Patrice.


References:

http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/2009/10/HALIMI/18192

Eurostat:

Statistics in focus by Author: Pekka ALAJÄÄSKÖ 101/2008 designate4d KS-SF-08-101-EN.pdf

Statistics in focus Author: Aleksandra STAWIŃSKA 4/2010 KS-SF-10-004-EN.pdf

The Tera Report.

Todays article was bought to you by the number 30 and the words silver and pieces.

Perhaps the Publishing Business should pay the environmental clean-up bill.

Hot:

Yesterday we explored one of the publishers [Cinram] that are apparently (according to the Tera Report) losing jobs due to consumer file sharing which Patrice Geoffron of Tera Consultants has determined should be classified as the principal cause of damage to the future of media publishing companies in the EU.

In the report he claimed;

The study focuses primarily on the effects of digital piracy, which refers to various forms of online piracy, including file-sharing via peer-to-peer (P2P) networks. Digital piracy is growing rapidly and accounts for the majority of economic losses to the creative industries.

From 2008 to 2015, file-sharing traffic in Europe is expected to grow at an annual rate in excess of 18%. If the losses from digital piracy were to grow at this rate, the result would be revenue losses in recorded music, film, TV series and software of approximately €32 billion in 2015

I think by now, most of the world realises that file sharing is a result of the digital content not being made available by the Content Creation Industry [in fact we proved that file sharing is 39% more likely to occur when digital content alternatives were not legally available, here… Tera Rebuttal Response 1 – File Sharing – Convenience, Availability.]

Today, we will briefly study the cost to the environment and humanity of the continuation by industry in resisting the digital landslide and continuing to output their content on materials whose manufacture, distribution, utilisation (handling) and disposal by mankind is both an environmental and serious health concern.

We all know that traditional methods of publishing on paper, CD’s and DVD’s pollute our atmosphere and landfills.

But do we know how much pollution is generated by these outmoded forms of information distribution mediums?

Last year (May 12th) I published a brief article about how many Newspapers it took to build up the carbon emissions necessary to build an Ayers Rock.

The combined total of the different divisions of News Limited in 2007 output a total of 47,742 tons of CO2 per annum which is enough to build 2.83 Ayers Rocks.

For overseas people, Ayers Rock is the big thing in the middle of Australia that Martians can see without a Telescope. [Yeah? Well how do you know there aren’t any Martians? Oh, the Mars Rover…. Well maybe Martians are clever and walk around behind the Rover so it cant see them……)

In the heart of the Australian Outback, a massive block of red sandstone rises up out of the near-perfect flatness of the eroded landscape. Called Uluru, or Ayer’s Rock, this giant is a monolith 348 meters (1,142 feet) high, 3.6 kilometers (2.2 miles) long, and 9.4 kilometers (5.8 miles) around. It is the largest single rock known in the world.

Larger Version.... http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/5000/5304/uluru_iko_2004017_lrg.jpg

OK, back to News Limited.

Their electronic Division only output 498 tons of CO2 for the same period.

Therefore if we can assume that the digital audience is as large as the traditional paper audience, (and Rupert Murdoch’s recent revelations would suggest that it is larger); we can safely deduce that digital delivery is 95.86% less harmful to the environment.

It would seem to me that irrespective of the Tera Reports apparent desire (by basing the majority of it’s study on paper production), to see newspapers continue to be printed, our environment can’t actually afford the publishing business to continuing destroying our forests, landfills and peoples health.

[BTW, the Tera Report blamed the loss of jobs in the News paper publishing business to be due to piracy……. Yuk yuk yuk. Which reminds me of the Fallon joke from last year….. I guess the Somalians board the Newspaper delivery trucks and say “Give us your newspapers or we’ll run you through…”

Rupert is an Aussie. (Yes, we invented him here….) So that when Rupert says (as he will in the next couple of years) shut down the presses, he isn’t laying off workers – he’s saving the Koalas, Platypi, Kangaroos and you and I.

Now if the Government could just get its head around  the fact that Digital is good,  Paper and plastic is bad – well we could start saving the economy.

Save the planet – download a file….. and don’t dispose of that old scratched CD in a landfill.

Just one question – if no-one buys newspapers and magazines any more, what will we do with all the extra trees?

Gee, maybe we could actually breathe better.

On the 12th of May, I covered the topic from a slightly different viewpoint.

In other words, what was the damage to the environment of using CD’s or DVD’s?

I said….

We’re on the verge of an infrastructural shift as profound as any in human history, on the scale of the Industrial Revolution.

You might say we’re going to be seeing the other side of that revolution, and it will change our political system, our ideologies, and our beliefs.

Richard Heinberg. July 2006 (On the topic of Peak Oil and the ultimate breakdown of civilization due to a lack of oil to manufacture products like CD’s and DVD’s.)

We’ve blogged about carbon emission reductions through utilization of P2P technologies to lower man’s footprint on mother earth. [i.e.: Social networking replacing group gatherings, to an extent, digital file transfers and consumers blogging to each other].

But we haven’t really given a lot of detail. This week I came across Basecamp Earth, Ecological Footprints and a couple of the comments reminded me that I needed to revisit this theme.

Nobody did – but we found out…

Diagram of CD layers.
A. A polycarbonate disc layer has the data encoded by using bumps.
B. A shiny layer reflects the laser.
C. A layer of lacquer helps keep the shiny layer shiny.
D. Artwork is screen printed on the top of the disc.
E. A laser beam reads the CD and is reflected back to a sensor, which converts it into electronic data

Constituency can be laser coated, polymer dye impregnated polycarbonate containing; aluminium, Bisphenol A, heavy metals, silver halide, gold, nickel sulfamate, sodium hydroxide, acetone, argon, laquer, zinc chloride.

As well as the cost to the environment of the CDs, DVD,s and the packaging; there is the cost of production.

News Corporation have given us an insight into the environmental cost of content creation with their carbon abatement accounting for the movie Futurama Movie on DVD.

They are the first large publisher that has acknowledged that the output product of media companies is damaging to the environment. Their Supply Chain breakdown of carbon emissions acknowledged that fact and they then purchased carbon offsets (400 million dollars plus)  to make the DVD, carbon neutral.

Source: http://www.newscorp.com/energy/iwgy.html

Thank-you Rupert Murdoch. The world owes you one…….

The actual DVD manufacturing was outsourced to Cinram. What we did learn that out of a total of 368 tons of CO2 generated, the largest component was in the manufacture and supply of the DVD’s that went on sale.

In fact 70.7% of the total carbon emissions was due the medium that the content was delivered to the public on.

It could be argued therefore, successfully, that every illegally downloaded copy of the movie was offsetting additional damage to our environment.

How much damage?

That depends on the number of DVD’s actually produced. If was say it was one million units produced, (based on the following snippit from the-numbers.com)

DVD Sales Performance Released on DVD:November 27, 2007 DVD Units Sold: 808,771 Consumer Spending:$14,688,651 See full information for Futurama – Bender’s Big Score

Which translated into carbon emission terms equals approximately three kilometers of driving in your car for each and every CD/DVD produced.

News Corporation realise that this is a problem because they then did a spiel on how Cinram were improving their efficiencies……

(At least those divisions that haven’t been moved to China to hide the real ecological damage.)

Reducing our energy use, switching to renewables, encouraging suppliers:

Several energy efficiency initiatives are underway at Futurama, TCFTV and TCFHE offices. These initiatives include lighting upgrades, maximization of chiller units, IT energy reductions, and other office equipment efficiencies.

The manufacturing facility for TCFHE DVDs is owned and operated by Cinram in Huntsville, AL. In recent years, Cinram has completed significant energy efficiency and waste reduction projects. Energy efficiencies include the installation of highly efficient electric injection molding technology and a highly efficient boiler, resulting in substantial electricity and natural gas savings.

With regards to waste reduction, Cinram has taken on recycling and reuse programs in its markets. All “waste” products are sorted at the Cinram facility in order to separate potential valuable elements for use by other industries and businesses within the community. As a result, Cinram has created partnerships with other companies in the area to take the “waste” for reuse in other products, resulting in the great majority (at least 98 percent) of the facility’s waste being reused rather than disposed of in landfills.

One of TCFHE’s printing suppliers completed significant energy efficiency upgrades over the past two years, resulting in reduced energy consumption by 750,000 kWh and more than 80,000 ccf of natural gas.

Future initiatives include energy audits at supplier facilities, including Cinram, printers, case manufacturers, and raw material providers.

Additionally, Futurama, TCFTV and TCFHE are seeking out new opportunities future carbon reductions and working with their partners to do the same
.

Therefore we now know, that over 70% of the environmental cost of the entertainment was the manufacture and distribution of the physical medium.

i.e.: The OLD method of delivering content, a la the study by Tera Consultants who believe that lobbying Government to change legislation in a manner to to keep the old publishing ways is the best alternative for keeping jobs in the EU……

So we put it to the Industry – if the industry (with the exception of News Limited)  has a problem with carbon neutralization of the carbon created during the manufacture of plastic, CD’s and DVD’s – then we don’t really want any part of that problem either.

Either CD’s and DVD’s should be banned immediately or, the industry should have to pay carbon offsets on every CD and DVD manufactured, retrospectively to 1998.

How can the content industry expect mankind to pay for it’s folly. Because that is what the current legislative moves [ and the Tera Report….] are all about. Buy – Buy – Buy…… like there’s no tomorrow because WE (the glitterati the elite, the Music business deem it so…….)

We want our payoffs now – WE’RE too old to care about tomorrow’s environment – are you?

Don’t buy a CD or DVD today and save at least 2 bandicoots, an owl, a platypus, two possums and a koala from being poisoned tomorrow.

Glossary:

P2P Communications between two or more citizens of the world not requiring a central point of contact or internet routing. The Term is sometimes mistakenly used as a catchall for the practice of file sharing.

The term originated in ancient Mesopotamia around 4,000 BC when it was the recognised method of financing a farmers future crops , via their neighbours – pre the banking the age.

References:

Basecamp Earth, Ecological Footprints.

http://basecampearth.org/exp2/calcost2.htm

CD’s

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CD_manufacturing

Physics of AV items and RFID – security aspects of RFID tags do not work with AV items – possibly due to the metals in CDs

http://surferblue.wordpress.com/2008/06/28/rfid-in-libraries/

When the oil runs out: Take a second look at biodegradable cellulose packaging films

http://www.packworld.com/whitepaper-22652

Tera Rebuttal Response 2 – Sunset Industry Selection – NACE Categories DL-323

Hot:

The Tera Report released in March this year, (“Building a Digital Economy: The Importance of Saving Jobs in the EU’s Creative Industries”) prepared by TERA Consultants and supervised by Patrice Geoffron, Professor of Economics at Paris-Dauphine University, as the director of the study; made a number of claims about file sharing, and resulting job loss based on a series of assumptions.

This is our third Rebuttal  Response with Rebuttal 1 and 3 already published [please see references].

The Tera report proved that by selecting an old data set (NACE 1.1 no longer in use by EU statisticians since 1 January 2008) that there is Piracy in Europe and that Piracy will cause massive job losses over the next decade.

In other words, the report didn’t include any of the growth statistics of the fastest growing media segments:

  • Computer and console games
  • 3D Graphics content creation
  • Video on Demand
  • Telecommunications infrastructure
  • Mobile phone take-up and applications
  • Social Network Web Tools and applications.

The Tera Report presented a series of facts that might be considered misleading by anyone that understands technology or even that the world of media is undergoing a metamorphous from the old physical to the new digital.

We have a number of concerns about the dataset chosen and used by Tera to deliver this report.

Today, we thought we would give you a peek into how Tera consultants managed to use the Eurostat system to suit their own agenda.

We were going to conduct this response to the Tera report on Job Loss in the EU as a result of File Sharing in a structured fashion. Unfortunately, tying all the pieces together so that they are suitable for a Blog article is actually much harder to do than when you have the luxury of endless page capacity in a word processor with Tables of Authorities and cross referencing tools with footnotes.

(…. AND, I’m just one guy with masses of data to present in this most unusual of formats…. html. Perhaps I should print it in a newspaper…..)

So today we will analyse just one item of data offered by Trra as a justification for claiming piracy causes jobs to be lost.

NACE DL323 has many products – however in our opinion reads  more like the asset register from the Museum displaying technology from yesteryear than the list of products that should be included in a fair comparison of job loss causational factors.
(We have highlighted what we consider the sunset industries in the following list.)

32301155

Radio receivers, portable, sound recording or reproducing
apparatus

32301159

Radio receivers, portable, n.e.c.

32301175

Radio receivers, with sound recording or reproducing
apparatus

32301177

Other radio receivers not combined with sound recording or
reproducing apparatus but combined with a clock

32301179

Radio receivers, n.e.c.

32301270

Radio receivers motor vehicles with sound recording or
reproducing apparatus

32301290

Radio receivers for motor vehicles, n.e.c.

32302020

Colour television projection equipment and videoprojectors

32302030

Colour televisions with a video recorder or player

32302045

Colour video monitors with cathode-ray tube

32302049

Flat panel video monitor, LCD or plasma, etc., without
tuner (colour video monitors) (excluding with cathode-ray tube)

32302050

Colour television receivers with integral tube (excluding
television projection equipment, apparatus with a video recorder or player,
video monitors)

32302060

Flat panel colour TV receivers, lcd/plasma, etc. excluding
television projection equipment, apparatus with video recorder/player, video
monitors, television receivers with integral tube

32302075

Tuner blocks for CTV/VCR and cable TV receiver units
(colour video tuners) (excluding those which isolate high-frequency
television signals)

32302079

Satellite TV Receiver/Decoder (colour television
receivers) (excluding with a screen, video tuners, video monitors, television
projection equipment, with integral tube)

32302083

Black and white or other monochrome video monitors

32302085

Black and white or other monochrome television receivers
(excluding video monitors)

32303135

Jukeboxes and the like (coin or disc-operated
record-players)

32303139

Record-players and turntables (record decks) (excluding
coin or disc-operated record-players)

32303150

Transcribing machines

32303175

Cassette players (including telephone answering machines
without a sound recording device, personal stereos; excluding combined with
radio, transcribing machines, cassette player/recorders)

32303179

CD players, mains/personal (excluding combined with radio/
television receivers, cassette players or player/recorders,
coin/disc-operated record-players, turntables)

32303230

Dictating machines operated by an external source of power

32303250

Telephone answering machines with sound recording
apparatus (excluding those forming an integral part of a telephone set)

32303275

Cassette recorders (cassette player/recorders) (including
recording personal stereos) (excluding those combined with a radio or
television receiver, dictating machines, etc.)

32303279

Other tape recorders (magnetic tape player/recorders)
(excluding those combined with a radio or television receiver, dictating
machines, telephone answering machines, cassette-type)

32303290

Sound recording apparatus (including digital disc audio
recorders) (excluding dictating machines, telephone answering machines,
magnetic tape player/recorders)

32303335

Electronic still cameras and video camcorders; digital
cameras (still image video cameras and other video camera recorders)
(excluding closed circuit TV cameras)

32303339

Video cassette recorders for magnetic tape of width
<=1.3cm and with a tape speed <=50mm per sec. excluding those combined
with television, or a built-in television camera

32303350

Other video tape recorders excluding those combined with a
television – for magnetic tape of width <=1.3cm and with a tape speed
<=50mm per second

32303370

Video recorders or player/recorders (including laser or
digital video disc players/recorders) (excluding those combined with a
television, for magnetic tape)

32304100

Microphones and their stands (excluding cordless
microphones with a transmitter)

32304235

Single loudspeakers mounted in their enclosures (including
frames or cabinets mainly designed for mounting loudspeakers)

32304237

Multiple loudspeakers mounted in the same enclosure
(including frames or cabinets mainly designed for mounting loudspeakers)

32304239

Loudspeakers (including speaker drive units, frames or
cabinets mainly designed for mounting loudspeakers) (excluding those mounted
in their enclosures)

32304270

Headphones and earphones, even with microphone, and sets
consisting of microphone and one or more loudspeakers (excluding airmen’s
headgear with headphones, telephone sets, cordless microphones with transmitter,
hearing aids)

32304355

Telephonic and measurement amplifiers (excluding high or
intermediate frequency amplifiers)

32304359

Audio-frequency electric amplifiers (including hi-fi
amplifiers) (excluding high or intermediate frequency amplifiers, telephonic
and measurement amplifiers)

32304370

Electric sound amplifier sets (including public address
systems with microphone and speaker)

32304450

Portable receivers for calling or paging

32304490

Radio-telephony or radio-telegraphy reception apparatus
(excluding portable receivers for calling or paging, those combined with
radio receivers)

32305130

Pick-up cartridges for discs or mechanically recorded
sound films

32305150

Precious or semi-precious stones for styli

32305170

Other parts and accessories of 8519, 8520, 8521

32305180

Parts of apparatus of 8518

32305220

Telescopic and whip-type aerials for portable apparatus or
for apparatus for fitting in motor vehicles

32305235

Outside aerials for radio or television reception via
satellite (including rotor systems) (excluding aerial amplifiers and radio
frequency oscillator units)

32305239

Outside aerials for radio or television reception
(including rotor systems) (excluding for reception via satellite, aerial
amplifiers and radio frequency oscillator units)

32305250

Inside aerials for radio or television reception
(including built-in types) (excluding aerial amplifiers and radio frequency
oscillator units)

32305270

Other aerials and parts

32305280

Parts of apparatus of 8525, 8526, 8527, 8528

32309100

Installation services of professional radio, television,
sound and video equipment

32309200

Repair and maintenance services of professional radio,
television, sound and video equipme

We could take up several pages in analyzing each segment, but will restrict ourselves to one by way if example.:

2303135

Jukeboxes and the like (coin or disc-operated
record-players)

Juke boxes were big business … circa 1950. On page 164 From Tyler Cowen’s “In praise of commercial culture” we learn that:

The Rise of the Jukebox

The greater diversity offered by records compared to radio provided many avenues for the propagation of new music. The jukebox broughtotherwise neglected records to a large public audience.

The marketing of the electronically-amplified jukebox: in 1927 initiated the heyday of this medium. Suddenly the jukebox could beused to entertain large groups of people in dance halls, bars, and clubs.

By 1939 approximately 300.000 jukeboxes were installed, with 30 millionrecords produced for jukebox use each year. By the middle of the1940s. jukeboxes absorbed three-quarters of the records produced in America.

And an update on the state of the industry from an article in the Sarasota Herald-Tribune – dated July 8, 1982.

The Jukebox manufacturing business is also in decline. In the early 1970s, the association says four U.S. manufacturers – Wurlitzer, Seeberg, Rockola and Rowe – produced 70,000 jukeboxes a year.

Wurlitzer stopped making jukeboxes in 1974. Seeburg went bankrupt five years later and was purchased by Stern Electronics which is now marketing boxes under the Seeburg name. The
total domestic jukebox output is down to 25,000 a year, and half of those are sold abroad.

So the question remains, who purchases Jukeboxes and why?

It is our opinion from examining the websites of several Jukebox manufacturers and restorer firms that the Jukebox industry today mainly has wealthier individuals that wish to have a reminder of their youth, whether for home use and display in the entertainment room, or in a growing niche market, the themed bar or saloon.

Obviously, the EU stats show this lowered manufacturing capacity referred to in the above newspaper article.

Value EU-15 Total Sales (€)

Base EU-15

Germany

Spain

France

Italy

The United Kingdom

2001

32303135

19799

:C

0

0

0

:C

2002

32303135

16780

:C

0

0

0

:C

2003

32303135

21000

7000

:C

0

0

2401

:C

2004

32303135

16000

4000

:C

0

0

3933

:C

2005

32303135

12000

6000

:C

0

0

897

:C

2006

32303135

20000

5000

:C

0

0

1465

:C

2007

32303135

24000

8000

:C

0

0

1085

:C

2008

32303135

No Data Available

-

-

-

-

-

N.B. Please note the dip in production and sales from 2003-2005. (Undoubtedly due to piracy.)

The yellow section on each column refers to Italy only. It is assumed that the rest are manufactured in the UK.

Possibly the authors of the Tera report are from a different generation than that which comprises the majority of the current and future customer base of what constitutes media today.

Their lack of recognition of the immediacy and digital nature of media content by today’s consumers has led them to create a report based on incorrect assumptions and consequently arrive at obviously incorrect conclusions.

Australian researcher, Sharn Donnison interviewed 70 young teachers to determine what constituted the digital generation and how best to “teach” them. ( The “Digital Generation”, Technology, and Educational Change Griffith University)

The “Digital Generation”

… is about young adults and their relationship to information and communication technologies (ICTs).

… There is some disparity on the age parameters for the “Digital Generation”.

Consequently, their estimated numbers differ. However, what is undisputed is that they are prolific (Shepherdson, 2000). Their numbers are estimated to be larger than their “Baby Boomer” parents and will thus constitute the next “great” generation in the history of Western civilisation (Strauss & Howe, 1997).

This generation is often defined by their relationship to technology. While they have numerous descriptors such as the “Echo Boomers”, “NeXters”, “Bittersweet Generation”, “Millennials”,
and “Generation Y2K” they are most commonly referred to as the “Digital Generation”, “e-generation”, “Generation Dotcom”, “Cyber Generation”, and the “Net Generation”(Websters Online Dictionary, 2004). Much has been written about this generation often with a view to determining marketing strategies and future strategic goal setting. Some authors (Little, 2000; Mackay, 1997) have written about them simply with a view to understanding their cultural characteristics and motivations.

Inevitably, in any description, authors will note their intimate relationship to ICTs. For instance Gaylor (2002) argues that they are the first generation who has been weaned on computers and who have not only embraced technology but actually celebrate it.

The “Digital Generation’s” propensity towards ICTs is not disputed. They have a particular affinity for the Internet and use it for a multitude of purposes. This generation find it indispensable for
entertainment, shopping on line, homework and studies, banking, paying bills, communicating with peers, and developing community.

Furthermore, it is employed by members of this generation at a very basic level to craft their personalities. Mcgregor (2001) and Shepherson (2000) note how the “Digital Generation” use technologies to create unique and pastiched identities that are cut and pasted from cultural and
historical sources.

Undoubtedly, the “Digital Generation’s”character has been partially informed by their proclivity towards ICTs. Gaylor (2002) says of them that them that they are technosavvy, image driven, develop graphicy skills before literacy skills, do not think in a linear fashion but rather think non-linear, loopy, in hyperlink, hopscotch fashion. Time, for them, is measured in microseconds, and
survival is of the fastest not the fittest. They have a strong sense of immediacy, a desire for instant gratification, and a low boredom threshold.
They are success oriented and believe change can occur overnight in an “anything can happen and probably will world”. They learn by interaction and doing rather than sitting and listening and prefer to experience and feel rather than think and analyse.

Conclusion.

We find the study is heavily biased by the drop in sales from sunset manufacturing industries and by the omission of Video Games, Video on Demand and Mobile software delivery and manufacturing indices has ensured that the results are heavily skewed in a negative fashion.

We are disappointed that an eminent academic and respected member of ther community could get the facts, quite so wrong.

References:

Cowen, Tyler (2000). In praise of commercial culture. Harvard University Press. pp. 164,166. ISBN 0674001885.

Arar Y (AAP 1981) The Sound of the Jukebox may soon be a distant memory.

http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=r080AAAAIBAJ&sjid=L2gEAAAAIBAJ&pg=6793%2C3437935

Donnison S  “The Digital Generation, Technology, and Educational Change” – Griffith University

http://www98.griffith.edu.au/dspace/bitstream/10072/2085/1/25836_1.pdf

Eurostat Database

‘Data’ / ‘Industry, trade and services’ / ‘Horizontal view’ / ‘Structural Business Statistics’

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home

Tera Rebuttal Response 1 – File Sharing – Convenience, Availability (March 30, 2010)

Tera Rebuttal Response 3 – The Accuracy of Data (March 31, 2010)

Misdirection Ambiguity and Deception in Presentation of Music Industry Statistics. (err, Game-on-Dude)

Hot:

Many studies have been devoted to the analysis of the link between Internet diffusion and the decrease in recorded music sales. A majority of studies (summarised in Appendix 2) conclude that the impact of digital piracy on record sales is negative and of significant magnitude.

This is reinforced by market indicators at the macro level. The decline in recorded music sales across the EU is too dramatic to imply a simple coincidence: the physical recorded music market dropped by 36% between 2004 and 2008 at the retail level, representing losses of close to 4 billion in five years (from 10 billion to 6 billion)11. While digital sales have made noted progress, new business models are still generating limited revenues, since the overall retail market declined 26% between 2004 and 2008.

The Tera Report, March, 2010

Patrice Geoffron, Professor of  Economics at Paris-Dauphine University, was the director of the study.

What I think the Professor was trying to say was that the majority of PAID FOR STUDIES concluded that there was an argument for file sharing.

Let’s face it, Economists have been arguing over file sharing for as long as Barristers have been arguing over the time of day.

It doesn’t help though when eminent economists make simple mistakes and omissions in the compilation of their reports. It results in all economists being labelled with same brush.

Professor Geoffron reached his damming conclusions by using the simple artifact of ignoring growth in the three leading segments of the copyright creation and content delivery industry.

Games, Video on Demand and Mobile data. With this simple little omission he managed to make the content industry appear doomed.

OK, he left out other things as well. Like the status of the economy in Europe or that companies (like IBM) are constantly hunting new cheaper countries and as they do, manufacturing creeps slowly from west to east taking with it jobs, security and living standards. [Of course none of this has anything to do with file sharing, so most probably that is why the good professor elected to not include the data].

There is no mention anywhere in the report of the European ERM initiative that reports on all job creation and loss numbers and has done so since 2001.

There are a recorded 11,372 incident reports in the ERM database, yet Tera have failed to provide  even a cursory analysis of the ERM reports relating to the limited (country) dataset they have elected to dissect.

Yet the report claimed it was about jop loss in the EU. I doubt that there are any economists anywhere in the world that are not aware of the EU-stats databases.

Curiously, the largest physical recording media companies are listed there-in; so I am genuinely surprised that the ERM did not receive even a cursory mention. Unfortunately, this would make it appear that the report was based on a strict set of guidelines provided by Tera’s employer and as such should be used as confetti at weddings and nothing else.

Mind you, I am pleased to report, that he did include Jukebox manufacturing, that all important distributor of popular music in the 1940’s.

But I digress, today’s article is not about the Tera Report…. I’m saving that bombshell for down the road a bit.

Today’s article is about is about the “ethical” presentation of data – or as in the examples in the article, the incorrect presentation.

We start slow but hang around it gets interesting.

Don’t you love Statistics.

They can be made to say anything you want to, provided no-one reads between the lines.

For example…  From the recently released IFPI Digital Music Report for 2010.

The inference for the reader is “Oh my God…… they’re stealing the music!”

The reality is;

  1. that one in four people will NEVER buy music, whether they file share or not.
  2. three out of four actually buy the music they like after trying it via P2P.

So wouldn’t it be less argumentative and confrontational to say:

The statistics are the same.

The presentation is less contentious and a lot more honest.

My example would tend to indicate that file sharers add to the economy with only 25% not adding to it.

This is a good game.

IFPI tell us that they are working hard at making digital downloads available ubiquitously.

Lets try some more statistics to see if they are right.

Due to licensing restrictions,

With the world population being six point seven billion, we can also say…..

That because of complicated and expensive digital licensing agreements,

See, it’s that easy to make statistics work for you in convincing legislators to pass draconion measures designed to remove civic rights.

Moving along, here’s another snippet form IFPI. http://www.ifpi.org/content/section_news/20050412l.html

Internet piracy in Japan

SEE ALSO : Press Release

Unauthorised file-sharing

  • Broadband penetration is 48% of households (Japanese Internet Association).
  • 81 million music files were illegally downloaded in 2004.
  • 258 million CDs were burned with music in 2004, compared with 200 million CD albums purchased.

State of the local industry

  • Between 2000 and 2004 audio music sales fell by 30% – a loss of 200 billion yen ($US 1.8 billion).
  • The under 20′s consumer made up about 60% of CDs sales back in 1998, by 2004 this has dropped to about 40%.
  • In 2000, 26 albums sold over 1 million copies in Japan, by 2004 this had dropped to 10 albums selling over 1 million.

Legitimate Services

  • There are at least eleven legal sites in Japan, including: Mora, Excite Music Store, OCN Music Store, Listen Music Store, Love Music Store, Ongen, MSN Music, Yahoo! Music Download, ORICON STYLE, music.jp, reco-choku full

We looked further…. And in the 2000 edition of the IFPI worldsales2000.pdf we found

Asia & Japan

Japan saw a 4.5% fall in value but an increase of 2.5% in units. The fall in market value has been linked to the economic recession, although the release of CD compilation sets in 2000 may explain the climb in unit sales, despite the fall in value. Sales in Asia as a whole fell by 4.4% in

value despite an increase of 1.2% in units.

and worldsales2001.pdf

Asia

The Japanese market fell by 9.4% and 12.4% in value and units respectively. Sales of CD albums fell by 10.4% and this was especially marked in Japan due to the downloading of free music via the internet, where recording onto MiniDisc is as popular as CD burning in Europe, North America and Australasia.

In worldsales2002.pdf we found;

so we fixed it

And in the Worldsales2003.pdf we found

So we fixed that too.

There, the 2003 stats now had two countries with positive growth, Australia AND Japan.

But I was still perturbed about the apparent “lean” on Japan. Why hadn’t the Japanese RIAJ objected to this obvious “cooking” of the figures?

Now this is interesting, because unlike the rest of the music industry, the Recording Industry Association of Japan spends quite a bit of resources in informing the public of their statistics.

Notwithstanding that, I found it curious that Japan, the home of the CD, the MCD, the LCD, Akibo, PS3’s and most thinks geekingly gadgetal should be loosing sales to piracy.

After all, Japanese people can just go to their local rental music shop, hire the CD’s or DVD’s they want and rip them to their hearts content.

If piracy wasn’t a problem in Japan, with such an open sharing environment, then why should it suddenly become so?

This was definitely worth additional investigation.

  • IPFI said: 2000 and 2004 audio music sales fell by 30% and The under 20′s consumer made up about 60% of CDs sales back in 1998, by 2004 this has dropped to about 40%.

(see above)

We investigated and we found:

Reason number one.

Excerpt from: http://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-newest/e/ppfj02/suikei_g_e.html

2. Population Trend for Three Major Age Groups

(1) Trend of Child Population (aged under 15)
The number of births has declined from 2.09 million in 1973 to 1.19 million in 2000. Consequently, the population of this age group has decreased from 27 million in the beginning of the 1980s to 18.51 million in the population census of 2000. According to the medium variant projection, the children’s population will
diminish to the 17 million level in 2003 (see Table 1, Figure 3). The decline will continue together with the low fertility rate trend, and the population of this age group is expected to fall below 16 million in 2016, then enter the slow, longstanding depopulation process. Eventually, in the last year of projection (2050), the population is expected to be 10.84 million.

I make that a drop of 31.4% in the age group that IFPI are interested in.

Just to confirm the numbers we grabbed some population statistics from http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/kokusei/index.htm

We then added some sales figures from the RIAJ range and we found….

..that indeed the music spend was decreasing per head but not as fast as the target population age group.

As a control, we compared the numbers to the US equivalent population.

So conversely, whilst IFPI are hitting Japan over the head for illegal file sharing, Sales in Japan are decreasing at a much lower rate than in the USA.

In the USA meanwhile, the RIAA are advising people that their demographics are:

So pretty much everyone knows the music buying population is getting older.

Something was illogical.

At the very least the employees of RIAJ in Japan would know of the serious concerns of population stagnation and advise their American compatriots? Would they not?

We thought we would look for the reasons.

I visited the RIAJ datapages and downloaded their excellent series of RIAJ reports. I didn’t find everything I needed so I headed over to the  Wayback machine on the internet archive. Sure enough there were the missing pieces.

The RIAJ yearbooks are a mine of information. (Highly recommended for anyone that wants to know what is really going o the music business……)

I found production numbers for all physical media;

NB These numbers do not include any non-physical recording, (non-mechanical rights) mediums.

That’s a separate business worth hundreds of billions. (But obviously to be excluded from the Tera Report as it has nothing to do with file sharing.)

Back to the datahunt.

..which I tried to marry up with the IPFI Worldsales series (from which I extracted all the transactions for Japan from 1999 to 2004.)

Which after  painful line by line extaction looks something like this.

There was a repeat of the previous year for comparative purposes but try as I might, I was unable to confirm all of the IFPI figures with the RIAJ Year Book numbers with the exception of the IFPI numbers being published two years in arrears in the RIAJ yearbooks.

The clue in the bottom two lines second to last column was the biggie… USD.

This apparently suggested that there was a heavy reliance on currency values. (Especially since this field was omitted in subsequent years.)

I looked at the reports again.

Sure enough, the dominant word in all of the worldsales reports was VALUE. US Dollar Value.

On a “gut feeling” I popped over to the RBA site and downloaded the foreign exchange rates.

Actually, the closest currency to the Music rise fall rise figures was the Euro.

This was going to be a big job, I need the record sales of all the countries that I wanted to match against the US Dollar.

I had Australia’s numbers…. (minus 1996).

How did that compare against the USD exchange rate if I took out 1996 from the RBA spreadsheet.

Okay it’s monthly (in the second chart) versus smoothed annual sales in the first chart but by jove old chap, Koltai, I think you might be onto something. Lets put them both on the same chart

Wouldn’t it be amazing if the loss that the Recording industry had been talking about for the last twelve years had more to do with the Euro versus the US Dollar than whether or not 25% of file sharers bought any disks.

The question the reader should ask is why does an organisation have to cook the books to make it appear as if file sharing is damaging the industry. Could it be that without a Cause Celebre, the employees of those organisations’ would need to search out new jobs ?

Is this whole file sharing thing merely a farce to keep 200 people worldwide employed ?

…and if it is, how much money and time has been wasted by our governments pandering to the lobbying of these writers of fairy tales ?

This article is non-partisan, (no one paid me to write it and I am not funded by any Copyright Industry Bodies for any of my Research.)

Tom Koltai.

References:

Will be added later.

There are lots of them and I wanted to get this up before I went to bed.