Unh… but what did he mean???
Governments and lobbyists are experts at the George Orwell Doublethink game to use words to paint individuals, organisations and entire countries with psychologically designed negative meaning.
For example, on the occasion of my being banned as a Director by ASIC, Mr Vladimer Malinaric (not his real name – in Australia, ASIC investigators use fake names, so in reality, one never actually knows who his/her judge is), Delegate of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission said about me:
Doublethink TAKE 1
81. Whilst the absence of gross incompetence, lack of appreciation of commercial morality, a cynical disregard of the trading advantages of limited liability, dishonesty, lack of scruples, untrustworthiness or irresponsibility does not necessarily mean that a disqualification order should not be made, the presence orabsence of such matters is relevant to the exercise of discretion.
Isn’t that a great paragraph.
Let’s break it down slightly differently…..
Doublethink TAKE 2
Whilst the absence of
- gross incompetence,
- lack of appreciation of commercial morality,
- a cynical disregard of the trading advantages of limited liability,
- lack of scruples,
- untrustworthiness or irresponsibility
does not necessarily mean that a disqualification order should not be made,
the presence or absence of such matters is relevant to the exercise of discretion
In other words, even if the guy isn’t a crook, we have the discretion to make him one.
Unfortunately, it is my considered opinion that M. Geoffron has used the language of double speak throughout the Tera Report to present data and conclusions that are based on false premise.
BSA currently categorises all illegally downloaded software as a lost sale.
They calculate their numbers by receiving sale reports from within a country, city or region from software companies.
They then conduct phone call polls with company’s to see what software they have installed on their computers in the last 12 months, six months, three months and compare that to the sales reports. The difference represents the Piracy factor.
This is quite clearly incorrect in my opinion, for the following reasons;
1. Some downloads would be classified as the educational curiosity factor.
2. Some downloads would peer recommended meme compulsions.
3. Some downloads would be as a result of the lack of money and forced due to peer pressure to conform.
4. Some downloads would be for purely convenience reasons – (e.g.: residency in a country or region where this software/digital content is not available via legal means. (e.g.: The Beatles demonstrating a 39% higher predilection of availability on the ED2K networks (eMule/eDonkey//Kademlia) because they are not available on Amazon MP3 Digital downloads. (Koltai March 2010) .
..and as we discussed, I differentiate between start-up mode file sharing for new product releases (public relations cost) and establishment mode file sharing, which I consider (copyright theft) .
However the two are currently lumped together by everyone in one basket along with commercial scale copying operations.
My biggest concern is the lack of differentiation between commercial and Games software file sharing.
For example, in the following table representing the 20 largest Software companies in the world, 7% of total software turnover is attributable to games.
If we remove the service component of the top 20 (i.e.: those companies that make the majority of money from providing services, we lose another 35.9% of total revenues for a net Software percentage of only 57%.
Of that total, by my calculation, we are only left with 16.9% of the total revenues that could be affected by file sharing.
This is a far cry from the figures bandied about in varying file sharing reports.
Of course, in that 16.9% we have Microsoft, which according to my research, even taking into effect their regionalisation lock-in for different versions of the operating system, is undoubtedly the most copied software in the world. By my calculation, according to announcements of Windows release for mobile phones, and the number of mobile phones in the world, it would appear that Windows mobile is the most pirated/copied software in the world.
However, I digress, the following table provides a high level glimpse of some of my investigations;
|Company||Software Revenues (M)US$||Software revenue growth (%yoy)||Total Revenues (M)US$||Software Revenue share||File Sharing Likelihood (Koltai)||Likely at 100%||Unlikely at 100%||Likely BSA at 20%|
§ Adobe has been marked unlikely due to the support, utilities and proprietary server lookups that have secured this publisher from most attempts at file sharing it’s software successfully. Additionally, Adobe offer generous trial versions that can be extended.
I spoke to one of BSA’s Senior executives and aired my concerns with him.
It would appear that from our discussions, that your formula does not make allowance for digital purchases inter-region via Amazon, eBay and other Digital software distributors.
We discussed a growing tendency for consumers to disregard national borders when shopping on the internet driven by pricing alone. Example number 1. Corel Draw full version on eBay.
Both vendors offer free postage yet one (the USA offering is $96.00 cheaper).
(in our conversation you suggested that this was no longer the case.)
Game vendors no longer restrict themselves to sales by country region alone:
I can purchase from any country with no restriction (except the cost of Freight, but vendors like this are reaping the benefits of their international open sales policies with Battlefield Bad Company number one on the Games list last month in the UK..
|Rank||Platform||Games Hot List March 2010 Individual Format Top Ten||UK Sales||Market Penetration||ED2K|
|1||360||Battlefield Bad Company 2||202,000||NEW||533|
|3||PS3||Final Fantasy XIII||125,000||NEW||0|
|4||PS3||Battlefield Bad Company 2||122,000||NEW||0|
|5||360||Final Fantasy XIII||110,000||NEW||8|
|6||PS3||God of War III||94,000||NEW||19|
|7||WII||Wii Fit Plus||93,000||1,142,000||25|
|9||WII||Wii Sports Resort||84,000||1,587,000||83|
After my discussion with the BSA senior executive, I sent him much of the above data for his consideration. He notified me a few days later that he had received my comments and would be looking into it.
I have not heard back from the gentleman in question advising me that they had altered their counting method to allow for cross border and digital software purchases.
Unfortunately last week the BSA piracy report came out and no mention was made of the possibility of errors in the finding, nor was there anty change in the way they counted their data.
For BSA each lost (bricks and mortar locally estalished software vendor) sale was still a direct result of Piracy, even thought their collection methodology was outdated by at least the age of eBay’s and Amazon’s first cross border software sale.
Patrice Geoffron based his entire loss calculations based on the provably incorrect BSA numbers. Admittedly he (M. Geoffron) discounted the one for one by 50% to be two pirated copies equaled on lost sale, however unfortunately by our calculations as evident form above that number is still about 93% too high.
Conclusion, I am concerned that when persons like Geoffron P., economist consultant to BASCAP issue reports like the Terra Report last month designed to convince politicians to vote for the Three Strikes legislation, based on incorrect assumptions and data, (based almost entirely on BSA numbers) then policy makers have no choice but to accept their findings.
Even when those findings are at least based on data that is provably 93% wrong