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by Tom Koltai at 09:43PM (EST) on August 31, 2009
I guess the new star of the Internet, Zynga has started looking for M&A’s.
Not that they want to be taken out yet.
Fig 1. Farmville User Numbers daily growth through August. – Source – Facebook.
User numbers were doubling every two weeks – although have slowed recently mainly due to transaction (caps) restrictions from Facebook and possibly inadequate ICT planning – i.e.: Not enough decentralization in the server farms.
With eleven million daily users and running an estimated 12% commercial buy-in with approximately 4% each of 40, 20 10 and 5 dollar subs ….
The revenue is looking healthy.
| Users | 12% Takeup | $ 40.00 | $ 20.00 | $ 10.00 | $ 5.00 |
| 11828567 | 1419428.04 | $14,194,280.40 | $ 7,097,140.20 | $3,548,570.10 | $1,774,285.05 |
| Total Value (Estimated Monthly?) | $26,614,275.75 | ||||
| Daily | $ 873,974.64 | ||||
Which ain’t too shaby for an application that was born only nine weeks ago.
So I guess, the investors in Zynga intend to ride this train a little bit further.
Why not sell out now ?
Because the program has a seemingly disproportionate amount of appeal for the female population. My own requests for Farmville neighbours elicited a 98% female response. (None of whom were concerned that I was an over 50 bloke…… – mind you, opinions of ex-girlfriends and ex-wives notwithstanding – I am a fairly decent sort of a chap…. – but hell – they should at least take the time to read my FaceBook profile before clicking the mouse button….. sheesh – never before in my whole life have I ever been this popular – and I used to be the Chairman of a modelling agency…..)
So what gives ? What the hell is it about this Farmville thing that has roped in all those filly’s ?
Well, I’m no psychologist. But if I am to base my answer on my life experiences, I would say, that is to do with the miracle of birth, growth, motherhood and nurturing.
I learnt this in my previous life as a BBS Sysop in the eighties. The girls would sit there chatting to Eliza for a long time, whereas the boys would exchange two or maybe three rounds with Eliza and leave in disgust.
However, if there’s one thing I learnt from my BBS days with Eliza… if the girls come…. Then the boys aren’t far behind.
So if we take it that most of the current Farmville users are of the feminine gender, what will happen when the boys find out that Farmville is where all the chicks are hanging out……
Zynga – more servers please…… Actually – methinks that the Farmville environment would benefit greatly from a SETI type P2P rewrite. Especially for us bandwidth challenged down-under folk. Do you guys realise that I couldn’t get into Farmville at all this morning from 9:07 am till 10:47 am?!
(What I can’t make up my mind about is that is this indicative of a new trend on work computers in Sydney? Or is it just all the girls in the US that got home on Sunday night after a weekend away, checking their crops…….)
My crops !!!!!! They were a dying….
OK – enough distractions – we were discussing M&A.
The Zynga guys are a bunch of seasoned IT veterans. Their Board reads like the who’s who of Silicon Valley VC capital. In other words, these guys arnt new to the business. However, I think that judging from the server delays and at least three server farm upgrades since they started the game; I guess this baby’s success caught them a little unawares.
A few other things might have caught them unawares….. like why did the Farmville Herald Alexa ratings climb multo rapido ?
Alexa traffic rank for farmville herald.com:
| 7 day avg | 3,068,058 |
| 1 month avg | 1,786,135 |
| 3 month avg | 1,948,845 |
| 3 month change | -165,944 |
And who the hell is the Farmville Herald ?
Established in 1932 as the Farmville Chronicle and renamed the Herald in 1893, the Farmville Herald is one of the longest continuously running Newspapers in the USA.
The editorial staff must have had a pleasant surprise when their Alexa rankings skyrocketed in the last two months to a new high score.
Now of course, the masses are realizing there is no connection between Facebook Farmville and The Farmville (NC) Herald; so of course the rankings are falling back to where they were.
But if I was at Zynga – I would definitely be making this paper one of my top M&A targets.
Why ?
Because a meme, if profitable, once created, deserves a cache of credibility. e.g.: Walt Disney – Disneyland. The original Theme Park.
Imagine being able to go and plant your very own special crops…….. ICK! OK it was just an idea….
The entire town of Farmville NC should be considered for acquisition.
Or at the very least – it’s town hall should be hired for the annual Farmville playoff championships.
Of course if the tiny tobacco agricultural town of Farmville NC isn’t for sale, then maybe, Farmville VA might be worth a look-see.
All in all, Farmville would appear to be about ladies of all ages (my statistical subset equals only 50 with the average age running at 27), nurturing crops.
Now if those crops and dollars could only result in cash being churned out somewhere – the payoff would allow the purchase of both “Farmvilles” and leave a healthy bonus behind…….
Bill, eat ya heart out…..
To keep their attention – there needs to be additional social intercourse within the game – even if it is a basic Eliza type bot.
Oh yeah – I guess I really should justify the headline…….
The clue was in the “Who’s Who reference…..
Reid Hoffman, Chairman
Reid is a prolific Web 2.0 investor who has built LinkedIn into the leading professional networking site with 17 million active monthly users. Mark and Reid have worked together since co-investing in Friendster in 2003.
I look forward to the ensuing chess match……. Mark Zuckerberg might be in for a big Deep Blue type experience, although I don’t really think he will mind too much – as long as the zeroes are there……..
References:
Case Study: the IBM/Electric Minds ‘Kasparov v. Deep Blue Chess Match’
http://www.fullcirc.com/community/figalloibm.htm
69 hits per second – wow………. (Almost irrelevent when compared to Farmville traffic.)
We live in a new world.